Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS VICENTE [FERDIE]

for Sunday, 22 July 2012 [1:08 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 22 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on VICENTE (FERDIE).

VICENTE MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 006
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sun 22 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm VICENTE (FERDIE) slows down while cruising across the South China Sea...threatens Hainan Island and the West Coast of Guangdong Province (China).

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Luzon incl. Metro Manila & Bicol Region, Northern Palawan incl. Calamian Group, Mindoro and Panay incl. Boracay, Romblon & Marinduque. Breezy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China incl. Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun July 22 2012
Location of Center: 19.0� N Lat 115.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 368 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 393 km SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 484 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 517 km SSW of Shantou, China
Distance 5: 518 km ESE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 6: 544 km SE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 7: 586 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 8: 811 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Hainan-West Guangdong Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 530 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PhT Sun Jul 22

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

VICENTE (FERDIE) is expected to move WNW for the next 24 hours and bend more westerly throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Vicente will pass about 245 km to the SSW of Hong Kong early Monday morning and cross Western Guangdong's Southern Peninsula by early Tuesday morning. It will then make landfall over Northern Vietnam, just south of the Chinese-Vietnemese Border by late Tuesday evening...passing very close to Hanoi, Vietnam on Wednesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center. VICENTE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Gaining strength as it moves WNW across the South China Sea...passing well to the SSW of Hong Kong Harbour [8AM JUL 23: 20.3N 113.1E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Enters the Gulf of Tonkin after traversing the southern most peninsula of Guangdong...turns westerly as it nears typhoon strength [8AM JUL 24: 21.0N 109.2E @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Moving across Northern Vietnam as a downgraded Tropical Storm (TS)...about 33 km to the north of Hanoi [8AM JUL 25: 21.3N 106.0E @ 65kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas...will reach the coastal areas of Western Guangdong & Eastern Hainan late Monday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Coastal Areas of Eastern Hainan and Coastal Guangdong. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 530 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Vicente (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional to continuous showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: PARTS OF LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP AND NORTHWESTERN VISAYAS including BORACAY & ROMBLON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS VICENTE (FERDIE)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS VICENTE (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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