Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 09W [FERDIE]

for Saturday, 21 July 2012 [7:07 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 21 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on 09W (FERDIE).

09W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 21 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression 09W (FERDIE) has crossed the northern coastal areas of Extreme Northern Luzon...now in the vicinity of Burgos, Ilocos Norte...Thick rainbands sheared hundreds of kilometers to the west of the center.

09W will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Metro Manila, Palawan, and Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 09W (FERDIE).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat July 21 2012
Location of Center: 18.5� N Lat 120.6� E Lon
Distance 1: 5 km WSW of Burgos, Ilocos Norte
Distance 2: 25 km WSW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 3: 33 km North of Laoag City
Distance 4: 102 km North of Vigan City
Distance 5: 106 km West of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 153 km NW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 169 km West of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 8: 261 km SSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 9: 448 km NNW of Metro Manila
Distance 10: 784 km SE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: West Philippine Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sat Jul 21

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

09W (FERDIE) is expected to move WNW for the next 24 to 48 hours then bend more westward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 09W will pass about 225 km to the South of Hong Kong on Monday morning and cross Western Guangdong's Southern Peninsula, passing very close to Longmenzhen, China by midday Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and 09W (Ferdie) will become a Tropical Storm (TS) later today.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), away from Extreme Northern Luzon [2AM JUL 22: 19.3N 118.5E @ 65kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues gaining strength as it turns westward across the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)...passing south of Hong Kong [2AM JUL 23: 20.1N 115.3E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Bears down the coast of Western Guangdong...strength at near Typhoon intensity [2AM JUL 24: 20.5N 111.2E @ 95kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DISPLACED RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Zambales). Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional to continuous showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION, MINDORO, PALAWAN, AND VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 30 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TD 09W (FERDIE)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 09W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 09W (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm