Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS VICENTE [FERDIE]

for Monday, 23 July 2012 [12:07 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 22 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on VICENTE (FERDIE).

VICENTE MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 009
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Mon 23 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm VICENTE (FERDIE) has moved NNW during the past 6 hours as it continues to strengthen...threatens Hong Kong and Macau. Its outermost rainbands continues to spread across Hainan and Guangdong Province, China.

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Northern and Central Luzon, and Mindoro. Breezy conditions & cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon July 23 2012
Location of Center: 20.2� N Lat 114.8� E Lon
Distance 1: 231 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 255 km SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 464 km East of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 406 km SW of Shantou, China
Distance 5: 470 km East of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 6: 463 km ESE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 7: 648 km NW of Laoag City
Distance 8: 905 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Western Guangdong
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PhT Mon Jul 23

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

VICENTE (FERDIE) is expected to move NW to WNW for the next 24 hours and bend Westward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Vicente will pass about 155 km to the SW of Hong Kong early Tuesday morning and make landfall over Western Guangdong, just to the WSW of Macau on Tuesday morning. By Wednesday morning, the system will be crossing the rugged terrain of Southern China and will be over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours, and Vicente (Ferdie) may become a Typhoon tonight or Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center. VICENTE is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Bears down the coast of Western Guangdong as it strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon and prepares to make landfall...about 132 km WSW of Macau [8AM JUL 24: 21.6N 112.5E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Crossing the rugged terrain of Southwestern China...downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) [8AM JUL 25: 22.5N 107.8E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Dissipates over the Vietnamese-Chinese Border as an area of low pressure [8AM JUL 26: 22.5N 104.0E @ 35kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...will reach the coastal areas of Western Guangdong & Eastern Hainan late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Hainan and Southern China particularly Guangdong Province. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Vicente (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Hainan Island and Southern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Vietnam and Western Luzon (Philippines). (click shere to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

The Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) over the Caroline Islands, near Palau Island continues to consolidate. Various dynamic computer models continues to show possible development into a Tropical Depression within the next 2 to 3 days. Its center was located about 455 km SE of Koror, Palau or 1,282 km ESE of Mindanao, Philippines (5.0N 137.9E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and was moving WNW @ 15 kph towards the Philippine Sea. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains LOW (<30% Chance).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, and MINDORO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS VICENTE (FERDIE)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS VICENTE (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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