Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 08W [UNNAMED]

for Monday, 16 July 2012 [12:22 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 16 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on 08W.

08W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W [UNNAMED] UPDATE NUMBER 002
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Mon 16 July 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Depression 08W (UNNAMED) continues to intensify while moving WNW across the NW Pacific Ocean...may become a Tropical Storm (TS) tonight.

Residents and visitors along Ryukyu & Okinawa Islands and Kyushu, Japan should closely monitor the progress on 08W (UNNAMED).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon July 16 2012
Location of Center: 23.5� N Lat 136.9� E Lon
Distance 1: 194 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 469 km WSW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 531 km SW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 975 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1,571 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Mon Jul 16

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

08W (UNNAMED) is expected to continue moving west-northwest to northwestward for the next 24 hours...turning more north-nothwest to northward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of 08W will briefly enter the northeastern corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight and pass over Naje Island or about 275 km to the NE of Okinawa on Tuesday evening. 08W will pass very near Cheju Island by mid-day Wednesday, and make landfall along the Western part of South Korea Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday morning, this cyclone will be in the vicinity of North Korea on Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. An increase in strength is forecast within the next 3 days as the system moves across the warmer seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean. 08W will become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it accelerates NW...approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain [8AM JUL 17: 26.4N 131.7E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Shifts its track to the NNW across the East China Sea as it weakens slightly...approaching Cheju Island [8AM JUL 18: 31.9N 127.4E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Rapidly dissipating over North Korea...no longer a Tropical Cyclone [8AM JUL 19: 39.7N 127.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - not yet affecting any land areas...but expected to reach the Southern Island of Japan on Tuesday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of 08W (Unnamed). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 08W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0812.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 08W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 08W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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