Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon VICENTE [FERDIE]

for Monday, 23 July 2012 [7:15 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 22 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on VICENTE (FERDIE).

VICENTE MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON VICENTE (FERDIE) UPDATE NUMBER 010
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 23 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

VICENTE (FERDIE) rapidly intensified into a Typhoon as an "Eye" emerges on satellite images...still moving NNW during the past 6 hours...continues to threaten Hong Kong and Macau Area. Its outer rainbands continues to spread across Hainan and Southern China...inner rainbands now affecting Hong Kong, Macau and parts of Western Guangdong.

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Northern and Central Luzon, and Mindoro. Breezy conditions & cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon July 23 2012
Location of Eye: 20.8� N Lat 114.4� E Lon
Distance 1: 157 km South of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 176 km SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 374 km SW of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 419 km ESE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 5: 434 km ENE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 6: 445 km ENE of Qionghai, China
Distance 7: 711 km NW of Laoag City
Distance 8: 989 km NW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Western Guangdong
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PhT Mon Jul 23

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

VICENTE (FERDIE) is expected to move NW to WNW for the next 24 hours and bend Westward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Vicente will pass about 110 km to the SSW of Hong Kong early Tuesday morning and make landfall over Western Guangdong, just to the WSW of Macau around sunrise Tuesday. By whole day Tuesday until Thursday, the system will cross the rugged terrain of Southern China and Northernmost Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 hours, before it makes landfall and Vicente (Ferdie) will start to weaken, dissipate as it tracks inland beginning Tuesday morning through Thursday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 195 kilometers (105 nautical miles). VICENTE is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) after making landfall over Western Guangdong and traverses the rugged terrain of Southern China...about 137 km NE of Zhanjiang, China [2PM JUL 24: 22.2N 111.4E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves rapidly westward across the Chinese-Vietnamese Border and into Northern Vietnam...about 192 km North of Hanoi [2PM JUL 25: 22.7N 106.1E @ 55kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipates near the Vietnamese-Chinese Border as an area of low pressure...about 267 km WNW of Hanoi [2PM JUL 26: 22.4N 103.7E @ 35kph].

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (South China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...but will reach the coastal areas of Western Guangdong later tonight or early Tuesday. Hong Kong and Macau may not be spared if the NNW track continues. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Hong Kong, Macau and Western Guangdong (between east of Zhanjiang up to east of Hong Kong). Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Hainan and the rest of Southern China including SW Taiwan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Vicente (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Hong Kong, Macau and Western Guangdong. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China, Western Taiwan and Western Luzon (Philippines). (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

The Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) over the Caroline Islands, near Palau Island not yet organized. Various dynamic computer models still continues to show possible development into a Tropical Depression within the next 2 to 3 days. Its center was located about 268 km SSE of Koror, Palau or 1,022 km ESE of Mindanao, Philippines (5.0N 135.5E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and was moving West @ 22 kph towards the Philippine Sea. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains LOW (<30% Chance).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, and MINDORO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY VICENTE (FERDIE)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY VICENTE (FERDIE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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