Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SAOLA [GENER]

for Sunday, 29 July 2012 [7:38 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).

SAOLA MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (GENER) UPDATE NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 29 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm SAOLA (GENER) heading north as it increases its threat to Batanes and Taiwan Area...Western outer rainbands continues to spread across Northeastern Luzon (Cagayan and Isabela).

This storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Bicol Region, Mindoro, Visayas, and Palawan today. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough.

Meanwhile, a weak Tropical Disturbance (LPA) tagged as 97W has formed over the West Philippine Sea - about 258 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.4N 117.8E), as observed on recent satellite images. This disturbance is embedded within the strong monsoonal flow which is enhanced by SAOLA and will be closely monitored for further consolidation.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun July 29 2012
Location of Center: 18.7� N Lat 125.5� E Lon
Distance 1: 348 km East of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 358 km NE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 3: 402 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 425 km NE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 420 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 455 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 449 km NE of Cauayan City
Distance 8: 426 km ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 9: 418 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 10: 618 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 11: 662 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

SAOLA (GENER) is expected to resume moving NNW for the next 24 to 48 hours with a decrease in its forward speed, and will slightly bend NW-ward after 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will remain over the open sea (North Philippine Sea)...passing well to the ENE of Basco, Batanes Monday evening, and approaching the coast of Northeastern Taiwan on Tuesday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. More strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days, and SAOLA is expected to become a Category 1 Typhoon on Monday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center. SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Becomes a minimal Typhoon as it passes to the East of the Batanes Group...about 260 km East of Basco, Batanes [6PM JUL 30: 20.6N 124.5E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Becomes a Cateogory 2 Typhoon as it moves closer to the coast of Eastern Taiwan...about 294 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan [6PM JUL 31: 22.1N 123.6E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Nearing Category 3 status as it bears down the coast of Northeastern Taiwan...about 107 km ESE of Hualien City, Taiwan [6PM AUG 01: 23.7N 122.6E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its western outer rainbands affecting & spreading across Cagayan and Isabela. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Cagayan, Isabela, & the Batanes Group of Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Storm (TS) DAMREY (11W) situated over the far Western Pacific Ocean has remained almost stationary...still no threat to land. Its center was located about 401 km ESE of Chichi Jima or 466 km ENE of Iwo To (25.8N 145.8E)...with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph and is forecast to move WNW slowly towards the sea south of Japan. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional to widespread showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS and PALAWAN. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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