Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KHANUN [ENTENG]

for Tuesday, 17 July 2012 [8:32 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 16 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KHANUN (ENTENG).

KHANUN MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON2000 (T2K) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM KHANUN (ENTENG) UPDATE NUMBER 004
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 17 July 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)

KHANUN (ENTENG) which briefly entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) last night, has strengthened into a Tropical Storm...accelerating WNW towards the Southern Islands of Japan.

Residents and visitors along Ryukyu & Okinawa Islands and Kyushu, Japan should closely monitor the progress on KHANUN (ENTENG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue July 17 2012
Location of Center: 26.0� N Lat 132.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 374 km SE of Naje Island
Distance 2: 442 km ESE of Okinawa City
Distance 3: 451 km ESE of Kadena Airbase
Distance 4: 644 km SSE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 5: 1,216 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus
NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 25 mm (Low)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue Jul 17

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

KHANUN (ENTENG) is expected to turn northwestward for the next 24 hours...turning more sharply north-northwest to northward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of KHANUN will pass over Naje Island tonight and over Cheju Island Wednesday early evening. It will make landfall along the Western Coast of South Korea early Thursday morning and will be over the Northern part of North Korea early Friday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is likely within the next 24 hours. KHANUN will start losing strength once it moves over the Korean Peninsula on Thursday and Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches its peak wind intensity as it turns NNW...approaching the Korean Island Resort of Cheju [2AM JUL 18: 29.8N 128.0E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it makes landfall along the West Coast of South Korea [2AM JUL 19: 35.6N 126.6E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly dissipating over the North Korean-Chinese Border...no longer a Tropical Cyclone [2AM JUL 20: 41.0N 127.4E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any land areas...will Ryukyu Islands particularly Naje Island this afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 10 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 11 to 25 mm (low) along areas near the center of Khanun (Enteng). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern Japan. (click shere to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS KHANUN (ENTENG)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Khanun's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS KHANUN (ENTENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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