Saturday, November 26, 2016

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 008


Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 008

Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Saturday 26 November 2016
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 26 November 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) continues to gain strength while moving over the West Philippine Sea.

This cyclone is expected to move north-northwest to north slowly at a speed of 13 km/hr through the next 24 hours.

Where is Tokage(Marce)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, November 26...0300 GMT. The center was located over the northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 13.7N 118.0E), about 298 km northwest of Coron, Palawan or 236 km west of Lubang Island.

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph.

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 22 kph, towards the northern part of the West Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area(s)

:: None

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: None

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies further as it moves north-northwest to north inward to the northern part of the West Philippine Sea, just to the north of Scarborough Shoal…about 272 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales [8AM NOV 27: 16.2N 117.6E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

MONDAY MORNING: Drifts southwestward and weakens rapidly due to entrainment of cold air from the surge of Northeast Monsoon…about 363 km west of Iba, Zambales [8AM NOV 28: 15.6N 116.6E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens into an area of low pressure as it continues to drift southwestward…about 562 km west-southwest of Iba, Zambales [8AM NOV 29: 13.8N 115.0E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 450 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):45 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Nov 26, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.7º N Lat 118.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 394 km NW of 
Amanpulo, Pamalican Is.
Distance 2: 318 km NNW of 
El Nido, Palawan
Distance 3: 365 km WNW of San Jose, Occ. Mindoro
Distance 4: 274 km WSW of 
Subic Bay, Zambales 
Distance 5: 341 km WSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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