Friday, November 25, 2016

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 005


Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 005

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Friday 25 November 2016
Next Update: Saturday Early Morning,  26 November 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) has slightly intensified as it approaches the Calamian Group of Islands. Its rainbands together with its associated Troughs will bring occasionally moderate to heavy rains across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, Bicol Region, CaLaBaRZon, portions of Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila.

This cyclone is expected to move northwest to north-northwest at a speed of 17 km/hr, traversing Calamian Group of Islands this evening and shall be over the West Philippine Sea by tomorrow.

*Residents living in areas near the path of this storm and its associated troughs are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Where is Marce?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 25...0900 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of Mindoro Strait (near 11.7N 120.8E), about 73 km east-southeast of Coron, Palawan or 35 km north-northeast of Amanpulo, Pamalican Island. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph.

Where is it heading?

It was moving Westward @ 20 kph, towards Calamian Group of Islands and the West Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area(s)

Over Busuanga Island between 7pm to 10pm tonight,with a high Strike Probability of 95%.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: None

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further as it turns north-northwest to northward slowly across the West Philippine Sea…about 242 km west-southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales [2PM NOV 26: 13.8N 118.3E @ 85kph].Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slows down further while moving northward across the West Philippine Sea, just north of Scarborough Shoal…about 243 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM NOV 27: 17.0N 118.2E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Quasi-stationary while over the West Philippine Sea, starts to weaken…about 223 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM NOV 28: 17.6N 118.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 470 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Nov 25, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.7º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 84 km SSW of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro 
Distance 2: 92 km NNW of Cuyo Island
Distance 3: 122 km WSW of Boracay Island Resort 
Distance 4: 124 km ENE of El Nido, Palawan 
Distance 5: 312 km S of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: