Friday, November 25, 2016

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 004


Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 004

Issued at: 12:30 PM PhT (04:30 GMT) Friday 25 November 2016
Next Update: Friday Evening, 25 November 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm (MARCE) internationally named "TOKAGE", a lizard in Japan, has maintained its strength and is now emerging over the northern part of the Sulu Sea.

This cyclone is expected to move in a generally west-northwesterly track at a speed of 19 km/hr towards Mindoro-Calamian Group Area through the West Philippine Sea.

TOKAGE (MARCE) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) which will bring moderate to heavy rains along the eastern section of Luzon.

Residents living in areas near the path of this storm as well as those in areas that will be affected by the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flash floods and landslides.

Where is Tokage(Marce)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, November 25...0300 GMT. The center was located off the northern coast of Antique (near 11.7N 121.9E), about 51 km west ofKalibo, Aklan or 93 km west of Roxas City, Capiz. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 25 kph, towards Northern Sulu Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.


Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies further as it traverses Northern Sulu Sea through West Philippine Sea in a west-northwesterly track with decreasing speed…about 222 km northwest of Coron, Palawan [8AM NOV 26: 13.2N 118.5E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it veersnorth-northwestward…about 272 km west-northwest ofIba, Zambales [8AM NOV 27: 16.2N 117.6E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

MONDAY MORNING: Weakens and slows down as it turns to the north and north-northeast…about 223 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM NOV 28: 17.8N 118.3E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 400 km (Midget)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Nov 25, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.7º N Lat 121.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 130 km NNW of Iloilo City, Iloilo 
Distance 2: 174 km NW of Cadiz City, Negros Occidental
Distance 3: 115 km SE of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
Distance 4: 182 km E of Coron, Palawan
Distance 5: 335 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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