Saturday, November 26, 2016

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 006


Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 006

Issued at: 1:30 AM PhT (17:30 GMT) Saturday 26 November 2016
Next Update: Saturday Morning,  26 November 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) has made landfall over Busuanga Island a few hours ago and has become more turning northwest slowly across the West Philippine Sea.

This cyclone is expected to continue moving northwesterly at a speed of 18 km/hr through the next 24 hours.

*Residents living in areas near the path of this storm and its associated troughs are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Where is Marce?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, November 25...1500 GMT.  The center was located over Busuanga Island, Calamian Group (near 12.1N 120.2E), about 11 km northeast of Coron, Palawan or 93 km west-southwest of San Juan, Occidental Mindoro. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center...Gustiness: 95 kph.

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 13 kph, towards the West Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area(s)

:: None

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: None

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EVENING: Turns northwestward as it intensifies further over the West Philippine Sea…about 271 km west-southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales [8PM NOV 26: 14.5N 117.8E @ 85kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

SUNDAY EVENING: Slows down further while moving northward across the West Philippine Sea, just north of Scarborough Shoal…about 246 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8PM NOV 27: 17.3N 118.1E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

MONDAY EVENING: Quasi-stationary as it drifts Southwestward  while over the West Philippine Sea, weaken further…about 290 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8PM NOV 28: 17.2N 117.7E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 320 km (Very Small / Midget)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Nov 25, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.1º N Lat 120.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km NW of Amanpulo, Pamalican Is. 
Distance 2: 104 km NNE of El Nido, Palawan
Distance 3: 178 km S of Lubang Island, Occ. Mindoro 
Distance 4: 186 km WSW of Boracy Island Resort 
Distance 5: 284 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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