Saturday, November 26, 2016

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 009


Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) Update Number 009

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 26 November 2016
Next Update: Sunday Morning,  27 November 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm TOKAGE (MARCE) has maintained its strength as it moved slowly north-northwest across the West Philippine Sea during the past 6 hours. Its rainbands are no longer affecting the landmass of the Philippines.

This cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northwest to north at a speed of 11 km/hr through the next 24 hours. It shall pass over the Scarborough Shoal tonight.

Where is Marce?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 26...1100 GMT. The center was located over the northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 14.2N 117.8E), about 263 km west-northwest of Lubang Island or 277 km west-southwest of Subic Bay, Zambales. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center...Gustiness: 120 kph.

Where is it heading?

It was moving North-Northwest @ 08 kph, towards the Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal and the northern part of the West Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area(s)

:: None

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: None

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Moves slowly northward across the West Philippine Sea after passing the Scarborough Shoal Area …about 235 km west of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan [2PM NOV 27: 16.3N 117.6E @ 95kph].Confidence Level:  LOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Drifting very slowly northward across the West Philippine Sea as it starts to turn sharply towards the west-southwest, weakens rapidly…about 328 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2PM NOV 28: 16.9N 117.4E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens into an area of low pressure while accelerating west-southwestward across the South China Sea…about 564 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [2PM NOV 29: 15.3N 113.4E @ 35kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Nov 26, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.2º N Lat 117.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 266 km SW of Iba, Zambales 
Distance 2: 317 km SW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 344 km WNW of Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro 
Distance 4: 357 km W of Metro Manila 
Distance 5: 357 km NW of Coron, Palawan

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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