Monday, November 03, 2014

Super Typhoon NURI (PAENG) Update #005


for Monday, 03 November 2014 [7:59 AM PhT]


Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Monday 03 November 2014
Next Update: Monday Evening, 03 November 2014

NURI (PAENG) quickly becomes a Super Typhoon with 10-min. sustained winds of 270 kph near the eye...moving slowly northward across the North Philippine Sea without any threat to the Philippines.

This howler now matches the strength of Super Typhoon VONGFONG (OMPONG) which also passed over the North Philippine Sea barely a month ago.

Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the development of Nuri (Paeng).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.



As of 5:00 AM PhT today...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: STY Nuri (Paeng)
Location: Over the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.2N 132.4E)
About: 1,075 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan...or 1,120 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 270 kph near the center...Gustiness: 320 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 907 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,000 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 160 km from the Center
Past Movement: North @ 11 kph
Forecast Movement: Northeast @ 15 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea


STY Nuri (Paeng) is expected to move north-northeast within the next 12 to 24 hours...turning northeasterly through the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track, STY Nuri (Paeng) will be moving over the eastern part of the North Philippine Sea and exiting the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday afternoon. By early Wednesday morning, Nuri should be over the Western Pacific Ocean, passing well to the west of Iwo To.

STY Nuri (Paeng) will still gain strength within the next 12 to 24 hours, then between 36 to 48 hours, Nuri will start to weaken as it moves across slightly cooler seas and unfavorable atmospheric environment. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 280 kph by early Tuesday morning...and decreasing to 230 kph by early Wednesday morning.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens more as it moves north-northeastward across the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea...about 1,260 km east of Basco, Batanes [2AM NOV 04: 20.7N 134.0E @ 280kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken as it moves out of the PAR...about 840 km east-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [2AM NOV 05: 23.8N 135.6E @ 230kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Decaying as it moves across the northern part of the Western Pacific Ocean...about 970 km east-northeast of Okinawa, Japan [2AM NOV 06: 27.6N 137.6E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Nov 03, 2014
Location of Eye: Near 18.2º N Lat 132.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 1005 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1935 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1070 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 4: 1125 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1290 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan









>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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