Thursday, February 21, 2013

TD 02W (CRISING) Update #006


for Thursday, 21 February 2013 [8:08 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 21 Feb 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 21 Feb 2013

Tropical Depression 02W (Crising) disorganized as it approaches Southern Palawan. Its scattered rainbands continues to spread across the western portions of the Sulu Sea and Southern Palawan.

This depression will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) and bring cloudy skies w/ 15-55 km/hr winds across Northern Visayas and Luzon including Metro Manila...becoming occasionally slight to moderate rains along the regions of MIMAROPA, CALABARZON, Bicol & Eastern Visayas.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression 02W (Crising) was located near the coast of Southern Palawan...about 126 km southeast of Brooke's Point, Palawan or 155 km east of Balabac, Palawan...currently moving west with an increased forward speed of 17 km/hr in the general direction of Southern Palawan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 02W (Crising) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).


TD 02W (Crising) is expected to continue moving westward during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 02W (Crising) will pass over the southern tip of Palawan this afternoon and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight...and could be just along the open waters of the South China Sea on Friday evening.

02W (Crising) is forecast to maintain its strength during the next 24 hours and will dissipate into an area of low pressure on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Moving across the South China Sea, exits the PAR...about 395 km northwest of Brunei [6AM FEB 22: 7.7N 112.7E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAINBANDS - spreading across Southwestern Philippines and Western Sulu Sea. Affected Areas: Southern Palawan. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-55 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas to the north and near the center of 02W (Crising).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu February 21, 2013
Class/Name: TD 02W (Crising)
Location of Center: 7.9º N Lat 118.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 126 km SE of Brooke's Point, Palawan
Distance 2: 133 km SE of Bataraza, Palawan
Distance 3: 155 km East of Balabac, Palawan
Distance 4: 156 km South of Narra, Palawan
Distance 5: 201 km SSW of Puerto Princesa
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph
Towards: Southern Palawan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD 02W (CRISING)...go visit our website @:


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