Wednesday, February 20, 2013

TD 02W (CRISING) Update #004


for Wednesday, 20 February 2013 [12:49 PM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 20 Feb 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 20 Feb 2013

Tropical Depression 02W (Crising) has moved westward slowly while over the Sulu Sea. Its disorganized rainbands continues to spread across Zamboanga Peninsula, Western Visayas and Palawan - bringing occasionally moderate to heavy rains w/ a high threat of flashfloods and landslides.

This depression will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) and bring cloudy skies w/ 15-55 km/hr winds across the rest of Visayas and Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Marinduque, and Romblon today. Some drizzles to slight rains are expected along Bicol Peninsula including Masbate...becoming moderate to heavy rains across the rest of the Visayas.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the center of Tropical Depression 02W (Crising) was located over the Sulu Sea...about 137 km west-northwest of Zamboanga City or 400 km southeast of Bataraza, Palawan...currently moving westward with a decreased forward speed of 13 km/hr in the general direction of Southern Palawan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Dipolog City has recorded 152 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered extreme or very heavy. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 02W (Crising) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).


TD 02W (Crising) is expected to move westward during the next 24 hours, with a turn to the west-southwest through the next 2 days. On the forecast track, the core of 02W (Crising) will move across the Sulu Sea today...and will pass over the southern tip of Palawan late this evening or early Thursday. The depression should be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday afternoon...and could be just along the open waters of the South China Sea on Friday.

02W (Crising) is forecast to slightly intensify through the next 24 hours reaching a peak of 55 km/hr, before dissipating into an area of low pressure on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY NOON: Moving away from the southern coast of Palawan as it slightly intensifies...about 190 km west-southwest of Balabac, Palawan [12PM FEB 21: 7.7N 115.4E @ 55kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Dissipates into an area of low pressure, as it moves out of the PAR...about 581 km southeast of Nha Trang City, Vietnam [12PM FEB 22: 6.8N 110.1E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAINBANDS - spreading across Southern Philippines, Moro Gulf, and Sulu Sea. Affected Areas: Western Mindanao, Visayas, and Palawan. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-55 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas to the north and near the center of 02W (Crising).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Wed February 20, 2013
Class/Name: TD 02W (Crising)
Location of Center: 7.3º N Lat 120.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 123 km North of Jolo, Sulu
Distance 2: 137 km WNW of Zamboanga City
Distance 3: 139 km NW of Isabela City
Distance 4: 400 km SE of Bataraza, Palawan
Distance 5: 428 km ESE of Balabac, Palawan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: West @ 13 kph
Towards: Southern Palawan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD 02W (CRISING)...go visit our website @:


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