Tuesday, February 19, 2013

TD 02W (CRISING) Update #002


for Tuesday, 19 February 2013 [7:54 PM PhT]



Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 19 Feb 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 20 Feb 2013

Tropical Depression 02W (Crising) just along the coast of Zamboanga City...will quickly traverse the city and emerge over the Sulu Sea tonight. Broader rainbands spreading across Western Mindanao, Visayas and Palawan - bringing occasionally moderate to heavy rains w/ a high threat of flashfloods and landslides.

This depression will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) and bring cloudy skies w/ 15-55 km/hr winds across Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro, Marinduque and the Bicol Region tonight and tomorrow. Some possible drizzles to slight rains will be expected along Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, and Mindoro.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 pm today, the center of Tropical Depression 02W (Crising) was located very near the east coast of Zamboanga City...about 22 km east of Zamboanga City or 47 km northeast of Isabela City...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of the Zamboanga City-Sulu Sea-Southern Palawan Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains at 45 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. A number of WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Stations (AWS) across Mindanao & Visayas continues to register more than 20 to 90 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered moderate to heavy. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 02W (Crising) is estimated to be heavy (320 mm).


TD 02W (Crising) is expected to move west-northwest during the next 24 hours, with a turn to the west and west-southwest through the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of 02W (Crising) will move across the Sulu Sea on Wednesday morning...and will pass over the southern tip of Palawan by Wednesday afternoon. The depression should be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday afternoon...and could be near the coast of Southern Vietnam on Friday evening.

02W (Crising) is forecast to slowly intensify through the next 2 days...and could become a minimal Tropical Storm on Thursday evening...and weaken back to a Tropical Depression on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Moving away from the southern coast of Palawan...about 100 km west of Bataraza, Palawan [6PM FEB 20: 8.6N 116.7E @ 45kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Upgraded to a Tropical Storm as it moves out of the PAR...about 510 km east-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [6PM FEB 21: 9.3N 111.1E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it turns west-southwest near the coast of Southern Vietnam...about 270 km south-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam [6PM FEB 22: 8.4N 107.5E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

RAINBANDS - spreading across Southern Philippines, Moro Gulf, & Sulu Sea. Affected Areas: Western Mindanao, Visayas, & Palawan. Tropical Disturbance Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (05-55 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 320 mm (heavy) along areas to the north and near the center of 02W (Crising).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue February 19, 2013
Class/Name: TD 02W (Crising)
Location of Center: 6.9º N Lat 122.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 22 km East of Zamboanga City
Distance 2: 47 km NE of Isabela City
Distance 3: 149 km SW of Pagadian City
Distance 4: 169 km NE of Jolo, Sulu
Distance 5: 219 km SSW of Dipolog City
Distance 6: 539 km SE of Brooke's Point, Palawan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Zamboanga City-Sulu-Southern Palawan Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [320 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 7 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)










>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TD 02W (CRISING)...go visit our website @:


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