Saturday, September 22, 2012

TS JELAWAT [LAWIN] - Update #005


for Saturday, 22 September 2012 [8:40 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 22 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
After drifting Southwestward over the past 12 hours, Tropical Storm JELAWAT (LAWIN) is currently quasi-stationary...with no change in strength.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Luzon should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat September 22, 2012
Location of Center: 11.8º N Lat 129.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 490 km (E) closer to Borongan City
Distance 2: 538 km (ENE) closer to Tacloban City
Distance 3: 581 km (ESE) closer to Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 650 km (SE) closer to Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 654 km (ESE) closer to Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 688 km (SE) closer to Legazpi City
Distance 7: 754 km (SE) closer to Naga City
Distance 8: 1010 km (SE) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 600 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF
(for Philippines only)


JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to move very slowly WNW during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will make a gradual turn toward the NW to NNW within 36 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will continue to remain over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Bicol Region as it moves on a snail-pace track poleward.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. A continued increase in strength will be expected during the next 2 days...and JELAWAT could become a Typhoon on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center. JELAWAT is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Starts moving slowly WNW...becomes a Category 1 Typhoon...about 373 km ENE of Borongan City [6AM SEP 23: 12.0N 128.8E @ 130kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Gradually turns to the NNW while over the Philippine Sea...becomes a Category 2 Typhoon...about 455 km E of Sorsogon City [6AM SEP 24: 13.1N 128.2E @ 165kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Reaches Category 3 strength as it continues to move north-northwest across the Philippine Sea...about 372 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [6AM SEP 25: 14.8N 127.6E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" may be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (85-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-84 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its westernmost part affecting & spreading across Eastern Visayas and portions of Bicol Region. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 600 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:


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