Friday, September 21, 2012

TD 18W [LAWIN] - Update #001


for Friday, 21 September 2012 [12:56 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

(1) Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on 18W (LAWIN).
(2) We would like to personally THANK YOU to all your greetings regarding my Wedding-Honeymoon Break. We never expected so many replies. Again, Maraming Salamat po! ~ Mike & Mitos Padua :)


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Fri 21 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
The small but strong Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and becomes Tropical Depression 18W (LAWIN)...forecast to track slowly west-southwest to southwestward during the next 1 to 2 days. This depression may threaten Luzon next week.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 18W (LAWIN).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 MN PhT Fri September 21, 2012
Location of Center: 13.6º N Lat 131.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 821 km (E) closer to Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 789 km (ENE) closer to Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 729 km (ENE) closer to Borongan City
Distance 4: 929 km (E) closer to Naga City
Distance 5: 1170 km (ESE) closer to Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 700 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 280 km (150 nm) [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF
(for Philippines only)


18W (LAWIN) is expected to track southward in response to a building high pressure ridge to its north during the next 1 to 2 days...and will turn sharply northwestward on Day 3. On the forecast track, the core of 18W will just remain over the open waters of the Philippine Sea, well to the east of Northern Samar and Bicol Region as it undergoes a turtle-paced movement.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. An increase in strength will be expected during the next 24 hours...and 18W will become a Tropical Storm on Friday evening.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MIDNIGHT: Moving very slowly WSW while over the Philippine Sea...upgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 575 km E of Catarman, Northern Samar [12AM SEP 22: 12.5N 129.9E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY MIDNIGHT: Continues to creep WSW-ward...nears typhoon status...about 417 km ENE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [12AM SEP 23: 12.1N 129.2E @ 100kph].
MONDAY MIDNIGHT: Becomes a Typhoon as it turns very slowly NW-ward while still over the Philippine Sea...about 365 km ENE of Borongan City [12AM SEP 24: 12.2N 128.7E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...but expected to reach the coastal areas of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region beginning Saturday or Sunday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 301 to 700 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of 18W (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 18W (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 18W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD 18W (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:


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