Monday, September 24, 2012

Super Typhoon JELAWAT [LAWIN] - Update #012


for Monday, 24 September 2012 [1:47 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday September 21, 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on JELAWAT (LAWIN).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 24 September 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warnings/Dynamic Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Super Typhoon JELAWAT (LAWIN) has slightly accelerated NNW during the past 6 hours with no change in strength. This howler has already spared Samar and Bicol Provinces from a possible close passage, however its outer rainbands will continue to affect these areas today.

Meanwhile, a new but weak Tropical Depression 19W (Unnamed) has developed outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), east-northeast of STY JELAWAT (LAWIN). This depression has been moving rapidly NNW and will recurve NNE towards Iwo to and Chichi Jima Islands. It was located about 680 km SSW of Iwo To or 1,774 km ESE of Batanes (19.1N 138.9E)...with 1-min. sustained winds of 45 kph near the center, moving NNW @ 26 kph. Check out the latest details on this system by visiting this page.

Residents and visitors along Bicol Region, Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of Jelawat (Lawin).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Mon September 24, 2012
Location of Eye: 14.1º N Lat 128.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 442 km (E) away from Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 446 km (ENE) away from Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 481 km (ENE) away from Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 487 km (ENE) away from Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 5: 509 km (E) away from Legazpi City
Distance 6: 535 km (ENE) away from Iriga City
Distance 7: 553 km (ENE) away from Naga City
Distance 8: 582 km (E) away from Daet, CamNorte
Distance 9: 705 km (ESE) closer to Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 10: 777 km (ESE) away from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Taiwan-Yaeyama Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF
(for Philippines only)


JELAWAT (LAWIN) is expected to continue moving NNW-ward with some increase in its forward speed during the next 24 to 48 hours. After 48 hours, JELAWAT could turn NW-ward while over the North Philippine Sea. On the forecast track, the core of JELAWAT will just remain over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea, well to the ENE of Luzon as it moves in the direction of Taiwan-Yaeyama-Ishigaki Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains at 240 km/hr (130 knots) with higher gusts. This system is expected to slightly intensify during the next 24 hours before losing strength in the coming days.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles). JELAWAT is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY NOON: Continues to move NNW across the Philippine Sea...strengthens slightly...about 546 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela [12PM SEP 25: 16.5N 127.5E @ 250kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: Weakens slightly as it moves towards the sea east of Taiwan...about 403 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [12PM SEP 26: 18.9N 126.0E @ 240kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Turns NW-ward as it approaches the sea east of Taiwan...just below Super Typhoon strength...about 254 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [12PM SEP 27: 20.8N 124.4E @ 220kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

19-KM ROUND EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas.. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its western and southwestern part still affecting & spreading across Samar and Bicol Provinces. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Jelawat (Lawin) (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Jelawat's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on STY JELAWAT (LAWIN)...go visit our website @:


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