Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Typhoon VICENTE [FERDIE] - Update #012


for Tuesday, 24 July 2012 [12:37 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 22 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on VICENTE (FERDIE).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 24 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Typhoon VICENTE (FERDIE) has started to weaken rapidly as it moves across the landmass of Southern China. Complete dissipation of this system expected in 24 to 36 hours.

VICENTE will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Northern and Central Luzon particularly the western sections. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Guangxi Province should closely monitor the progress of Vicente (Ferdie).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue July 24 2012
Location of Eye: 22.7� N Lat 111.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 167 km NNE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 2: 263 km WNW of Macau
Distance 3: 323 km WNW of Hong Kong
Distance 4:579 km ENE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Western Guangdong-Guangxi Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 210 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) [Avg/Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): -- ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 11 AM PhT Tue Jul 24


VICENTE (FERDIE) is expected to move West for the next 24 to 36 hours with little change in speed. On the forecast track, the core of Vicente will traverse Guangxi Province later tonight until Wednesday morning and will be along Northern Vietnam by Wednesday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will continue within the next 24 to 36 hours as Vicente (Ferdie) moves across the landmass of Southwestern China and Northern Vietnam. Complete dissipation is forecast by Wednesday evening.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles). VICENTE is a large/average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Just barely a Tropical Storm (TS) as it traverses the rugged terrain of Southwestern China...or over Guangxi Province [8AM JUL 25: 23.0N 107.3E @ 65kph].


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DECAYING EYEWALL - affecting parts of Western Guangdong. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Western Guangdong. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Hainan and the rest of Southern China including Hong Kong and Macau. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 210 mm (high) along areas near the center of Vicente (Ferdie). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


Weak Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) over the Southeastern Philippine Sea remains disorganized. Various dynamic computer models still continues to show possible development into a Tropical Depression within the next 3 to 4 days. Its center was located about 244 km SW of Koror, Palau or 743 km ESE of Mindanao, Philippines (5.6N 133.1E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph and was moving NW @ 17 kph towards the Central Philippine Sea. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains LOW (<30% Chance).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON particularly the western sections. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY VICENTE (FERDIE)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0912.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Vicente's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


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1 comment:

apple said...

Very interesting information. This typhoon Vicente also attacked the Philippines where this storm destroyed many properties and lives of the other. Hope those people that currently experiencing the strong effect of this typhoon are ok.

Weather Philippines