Tuesday, July 17, 2012

TS KHANUN [ENTENG] - Update #006


for Tuesday, 17 July 2012 [7:01 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 16 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KHANUN (ENTENG).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 17 July 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm KHANUN (ENTENG) gained more strength as it passes in between Okinawa and Amami Islands.

Residents and visitors along Ryukyu & Okinawa Islands and the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress on KHANUN (ENTENG).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue July 17 2012
Location of Center: 27.4� N Lat 128.9� E Lon
Distance 1: 111 km SSW of Amami Island
Distance 2: 148 km NE of Okinawa City
Distance 3: 163 km NE of Kadena Airbase
Distance 4: 179 km NE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 5: 495 km SSW of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 6: 713 km SSE of Cheju Island
Distance 7: 1,046 NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Cheju-South Korea Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 205 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue Jul 17


KHANUN (ENTENG) is expected to turn sharply to the northwest to north-northwest for the next 24 hours...and heading northward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of KHANUN will pass just to the west of Cheju Island early Wednesday evening and make landfall over North Korea on Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthing is expected within the next 12 hours. KHANUN will start losing strength once it moves over the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea late Wednesday thru early Thursday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. KHANUN is a average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers (330 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to weaken as it turns North while over the East China Sea...approaching the Korean Island Resort of Cheju [2PM JUL 18: 32.2N 126.1E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly dissipates over North Korea after it makes landfall...no longer a Tropical Cyclone [2PM JUL 19: 39.5N 125.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Western Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Eastern Ryukyus including Amami Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 205 mm (high) along areas near the center of Khanun (Enteng). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern Japan.
(click shere to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS KHANUN (ENTENG)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0812.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Khanun's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop








>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


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