Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Typhoon SAOLA [GENER] - Update #013


for Tuesday, 31 July 2012 [4:14 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 31 July 2012
Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Typhoon SAOLA (GENER) continues to wobble to the east of Batanes, may move NNW slowly within the next 12 hours. Rainbands with winds continues to spread and affect Northern Luzon and Eastern Taiwan particularly Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Islands.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Rest of Luzon, Bicol Region, Mindoro, and Western Visayas including Palawan today. Breezy to windy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasionally passing rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas, especially along the western coast. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West, East and North Philippine Seas will be rough and dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue July 31 2012
Location of Eye: 20.9� N Lat 124.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 233 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 250 km East of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 339 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 333 km NE of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 389 km NNE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 6: 451 km NNE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 400 km South of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 8: 482 km NE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 436 km SE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 10: 528 km SSE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 11: 773 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Northern Taiwan-SE China
CPA [ETA] to Northern Taiwan: Thu-Fri [2PM-2AM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 600 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km (540 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K StormTracks (for Public): Google Map (Flash) | GIF


SAOLA (GENER) is expected to resume moving slowly NNW for the next 24 to 48 hours with little increase in its forward speed, and will slightly bend NW-ward through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will remain over the open sea (North Philippine Sea)...passing well to the ENE of Basco, Batanes today til Wednesday, and will be approaching the coast of Northern & NE Taiwan by Thursday morning. By Thursday evening, SAOLA will be passing very close to Taiwan as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...and will be just along the coast of Southeastern China on Friday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. More strengthening is forecast during the next 1 to 2 days, and SAOLA is expected to become a Category 2 Typhoon by late Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 15 kilometers (08 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 230 kilometers (125 nautical miles). SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers (540 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY NOON: Gaining more strength as it moves slowly NNW away from the Batanes Islands...about 228 km NE of Basco, Batanes [12PM AUG 01: 22.0N 123.5E @ 140kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Reaches Category 2 strength as it approaches the Northeastern Coast of Taiwan...about 112 km East of Hualien City, Taiwan [12PM AUG 02: 24.0N 122.7E @ 165kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Attains Category 3 status as it approaches the the shores of Southeastern China...about 180 km East of Fuzhou City, China [12PM AUG 03: 26.2N 121.1E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Batanes Group of Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Northern Luzon, Southeastern China and Taiwan including Yaeyama-Ishigaki Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 600 mm (very high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon and Eastern Taiwan. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines and Southeastern China.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).


Tropical Storm (TS) DAMREY (11W) situated over the far Western Pacific Ocean as it moves rapidly WNW...still threatens Southern Japan. Its center was located about 137 km NNW of Chichi Jima or 380 km NNE of Iwo To (28.4N 139.7E)...with maximum sustained winds of 95 kph and is forecast to move WNW @ 31 kph towards Southern Japan. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, REST OF LUZON, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, and WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TS SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:


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