Monday, July 16, 2012

TD KHANUN [08W] - Update #003


for Monday, 16 July 2012 [7:22 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 16 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on KHANUN (08W).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 16 July 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Depression 08W has already been named as KHANUN - a Thai word for jackfruit...tracking northwest in the direction of Ryukyu Islands.

Residents and visitors along Ryukyu & Okinawa Islands and Kyushu, Japan should closely monitor the progress on KHANUN (08W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon July 16 2012
Location of Center: 24.6� N Lat 135.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 30 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 606 km West of Iwo To
Distance 3: 705 km SE of Naje Island
Distance 4: 781 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1,449 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Ryukyus
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Jul 16


KHANUN (08W) is expected to continue moving west-northwest to northwestward for the next 24 hours...turning more north-northwest to northward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of KHANUN will briefly enter the northeastern corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight and pass over Naje Island or about 250 km to the NE of Okinawa on Tuesday afternoon. KHANUN will pass very near Cheju Island by midday Wednesday, and make landfall along the Southern part of South Korea on Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday afternoon, this cyclone will be in the vicinity of North Korea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. An increase in strength is forecast within the next 3 days as the system moves across warmer seas. KHANUN will become a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it accelerates WNW to NW...approaching the Ryukyu Island Chain [2PM JUL 17: 27.6N 130.1E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Shifts its track to the NNW to Northward across the East China Sea...passing very close to Cheju Island, and approaching the Southern Coast of South Korea [2PM JUL 18: 33.8N 127.3E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly dissipating over the northeastern portion of North longer a Tropical Cyclone [2PM JUL 19: 40.8N 128.9E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - not yet affecting any land areas...but expected to reach the Southern Islands of Japan on Tuesday. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of KHANUN (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD KHANUN (08W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0812.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Khanun's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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