Sunday, July 29, 2012

TS SAOLA [GENER] - Update #006


for Sunday, 29 July 2012 [8:00 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 28 2012):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly web, email, SMS & iTyphoon app updates (except 12 Midnight) on SAOLA (GENER).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 29 July 2012

Sources: T2K Analysis/Dynamical Models/SatFixes
View: T2K TC Update Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm SAOLA (GENER) has drifted northward during the past 12 hours as it gained more strength while over the Central Philippine Sea...Outermost rainbands spreading across the coastal areas of Isabela.

This storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Bicol Region, Mindoro, Visayas, Palawan and Western Mindanao today. Breezy conditions & mostly cloudy conditions w/ occasional to sometimes continuous rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along the abovementioned areas.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of Saola (Gener).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun July 29 2012
Location of Center: 16.7� N Lat 125.5� E Lon
Distance 1: 322 km ESE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 321 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 367 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 405 km East of Cauayan City
Distance 5: 397 km ESE of Ilagan City
Distance 6: 416 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 424 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 445 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 9: 403 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 10: 561 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 11: 526 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 520 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]

Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft

Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Sun Jul 29


SAOLA (GENER) is expected to move NNW to NW for the next 24 hours with a decrease in its forward speed, and will track generally NNW across the Northern Philippine Sea throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of SAOLA will remain over the open sea (North Philippine Sea) through 72 hours...passing well to the East of Basco, Batanes by late Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. More strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days, and SAOLA is expected to become a Category 1 Typhoon on Monday evening or early Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center. SAOLA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Tracks NNW across the North Philippine Sea...about 347 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [6AM JUL 30: 19.1N 124.8E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Becomes a minimal Typhoon as it passes to the east of the Batanes Islands...about 189 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [6AM JUL 31: 21.1N 123.7E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Reaches peak winds of 150 km/hr as it moves closer to Eastern Taiwan...about 228 km SE of Hualien City, Taiwan [6AM AUG 01: 22.4N 123.0E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Central Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - its western outer rainbands affecting & spreading across Cagayan and Isabela. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 520 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of Saola (Gener). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).


The other Tropical Storm (TS) named DAMREY situated over the far Western Pacific Ocean has remained almost stationary during the past 12 hours...still no threat to land. Its center was located about 477 km ESE of Chichi Jima or 544 km ENE of Iwo To (25.8N 146.6E)...with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph and is forecast to move West slowly towards the sea south of Japan. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional to widespread showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS and WESTERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS SAOLA (GENER)

PAGASA: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1012.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: Saola's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS SAOLA (GENER)...go visit our website @:


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