Monday, June 18, 2012

Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY] - Update #021


for Monday, 18 June 2012 [7:37 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 15 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 18 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #028/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) just below Super Typhoon threshold as it started to recurve NNE towards Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight.

Meanwhile, another Tropical Cyclone internationally named TALIM has rapidly developed near the east coast of Hainan Island and may reach Tropical Storm classification this morning. For more information kindly view the Tropical Storm Watch section below for the very latest.

Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Northwestern Visayas & Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic today. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, particularly Okinawa and Ryukyu and Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon June 18 2012
Location of Eye: 21.8� N Lat 127.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 436 km SE of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 2: 491 km South of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 3: 514 km SSW of Kadena Airbase
Distance 4: 525 km SSW of Okinawa City
Distance 5: 568 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 580 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 7: 665 km ENE of Calayan Is.
Distance 8: 682 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 9: 705 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 10: 749 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 11: 1,043 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 230 kph (125 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 280 kph (150 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 60 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Mon June 18


GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to turn more northeastward for the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early tonight and will be passing close to the east of Okinawa. GUCHOL will finally be making landfall over Southern Honshu traversing Central Honshu on Wednesday, and move out into the North Pacific Ocean Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 230 km/hr (125 knots) with higher gusts. Continued decrease in its strength is anticipated as GUCHOL moves into unfavorable atmospheric conditions and starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone by Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles. GUCHOL is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 3...accelerating rapidly NNE to NE-ward, farther away from Okinawa...about 200 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUN 19: 27.1N 129.7E @ 185kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...makes landfall over Southern Honshu...becoming Extratropical...about 90 km SW of Nagoya, Japan [2AM JUN 20: 34.5N 136.4E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical after crossing Honshu, Japan...moving swiftly across the North Pacific Ocean...about 556 km ENE of Sendai, Japan [2AM JUN 21: 39.8N 147.0E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Guchol (Butchoy). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).


Tropical Depression TALIM (06W) upgraded from Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA), has started to move East to ENE-ward in the direction of Taiwan. This new cyclone will become a Tropical Storm this morning. Its developing center was located about 909 km WNW of Laoag City (18.7N 112.0E)...maximum sustained winds of 55 kph, moving East @ 13 kph towards Taiwan.  Watch out for a separate e-mail updates on this system today.

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHWESTERN VISAYAS including ROMBLON and BORACAY; WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA and SUBIC. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:


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