Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 11 2012):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (05W).
GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): --- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL [05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Wed 13 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm GUCHOL (05W) has started to intensify as it approaches Ulithi Islands...Rainbands spreading across Ulithi and Yap Islands.
GUCHOL (05W) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) Mindanao beginning Thursday and across Visayas, Western & Southern Luzon incl. Palawan, Mindoro & Metro Manila this weekend. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough.
Residents and visitors along Yap, Ulithi, Palau and the rest of Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (05W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed June 13 2012
Location of Center: 10.0º N Lat 140.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 215 km ENE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 547 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 645 km SW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 680 km ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 5: 1,588 km ENE of Surigao City, PHL
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Yap-Ulithi Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 220 km (120 nm) [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed June 13
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
GUCHOL is expected to move generally WNW-ward for the next 48 hours, before turning slightly NW-ward by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will pass just to the north of Yap and Ulithi Islands later tonight and will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday night.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Typhoon (TY) on Thursday night or Friday morning.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifying as it moves farther away from Yap and Ulithi Islands...approaching the PAR [8AM JUN 14: 11.1N 136.8E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon after entering the PAR...cruising across the Philippine Sea [8AM JUN 15: 12.9N 132.4E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Turns NW-ward while over the Philippine Sea...continues gaining strength...about 706 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [8AM JUN 16: 15.9N 128.7E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Yap, Ulithi and nearby islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 330 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (05W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Yap, Ulithi, Palau and other nearby islands of Micronesia. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS GUCHOL (05W)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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