Saturday, June 16, 2012

Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY] - Update #016


for Saturday, 16 June 2012 [12:35 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 14 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 16 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
Major Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has maintained its track and intensity while moving across the warm Philippine Sea. A small, ragged eye has emerged on the latest satellite imagery, a sign that the system will resume its intensification trend.

Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Visayas & Luzon particularly the western sections today until Tuesday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines and the Southern Islands of Japan, particularly Okinawa and Ryukyu should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 15 2012
Location of Eye: 13.6º N Lat 129.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 527 km ENE of Borongan City
Distance 2: 576 km ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 605 km East of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 607 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 631 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 662 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 648 km East of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 8: 692 km East of Iriga City
Distance 9: 713 km East of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 10: 747 km ESE of Daet, CamNorte
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat June 16


GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to continue moving north-northwestward with a faster speed for the next 24 to 36 hours and will turn North to NNE through 48 hours. By 72 hours, GUCHOL will start recurving towards the NE. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will just move across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea, passing more or less 600 km to the east of the Philippines through Monday - without hitting any land areas. It will be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Monday afternoon and will pass very close to Okinawa Monday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a dangerous Category 4 Typhoon Sunday evening.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles. GUCHOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 520 kilometers (280 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Starts to accelerate north-northwestward to northward while moving into the North Philippine Sea...nears Category 4 strength...about 668 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [8AM JUN 17: 17.5N 128.0E @ 205kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Approaching Okinawa as it reaches Category 4 strength...begins its recurvature towards the NE away from the Philippine Sea...about 390 km South of Okinawa Island, Japan [8AM JUN 18: 23.0N 127.5E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Moving away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...heading towards Metropolitan Tokyo in Southern Honshu...becoming Extratropical...about 138 km ENE of Naje Island, Japan [8AM JUN 19: 28.8N 131.2E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SMALL, RAGGED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop






>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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