Tuesday, June 19, 2012

TS TALIM [06W] - Update #003


for Tuesday, 19 June 2012 [12:12 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 18 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALIM.


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 19 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
Tropical Storm TALIM (06W) has slightly accelerated towards the ENE in the direction of Taiwan with little change in strength.

TALIM (06W) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Vietnam and the West Philippine Sea. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas. The seas along the coastal areas along the South China and West Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Southeastern China and Extreme Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of TALIM (06W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue June 19 2012
Location of Center: 19.8� N Lat 115.0� E Lon
Distance 1: 279 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 304 km SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 387 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 476 km ENE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 615 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 6: 631 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 724 km WSW of Basco, Batanes.
Distance 8: 718 km WSW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 9: 891 km SW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 10: 437 km SSW of Shantou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Taiwan
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue June 19


TALIM is expected to move faster northeastward for the next 2 days, bending towards the ENE at Day 3. On the forecast track, the core of TALIM will move into Taiwan Strait on Wednesday and brush the northwestern and northern tip of Taiwan Wednesday evening thru early morning Thursday. It will pass more or less 30 km North of Taipei around 12 midnight Thursday. TALIM will accelerate rapidly across the East China Sea Thursday and will be along the Southern Coast of Kyushu on Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. TALIM is likely to gain strength reaching peak wind intensity of 95 km/hr before it interacts with the terrain of Taiwan. Thereafter, it will start transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves across the shores of Southern Japan.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles) from the center. TALIM is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Gaining strength as it tracks northeastward near the Southeastern Coast of China...moving faster into Taiwan Strait...about 181 km SE of Shantou, China [8AM JUN 20: 22.4N 118.1E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Accelerating rapidly northeastward while moving across the East China Sea, after brushing the northern tip of Taiwan...about 286 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan...becoming Extratropical [8AM JUN 21: 27.0N 123.4E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical while along the Southern Coast of Kyushu, Japan [8AM JUN 22: 31.0N 130.8E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high) along areas near the center of Talim (06W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & Southeastern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and Vietnam.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS TALIM (06W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: TALIM's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop








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