Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 14 2012):
Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).
GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 15 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #016/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has strengthened rapidly into a full-blown Typhoon as it slowed down after it moved WSW over the past 12 hours. The typhoon is therefore anticipated to make a sharp turn towards the northwest within the next 12 to 24 hours.
GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) Mindanao beginning today and across the whole Philippine Islands on Saturday through Monday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous.
Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri June 15 2012
Location of Eye: 10.3º N Lat 131.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 681 km ENE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 703 km ESE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 740 km ESE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 811 km ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 5: 894 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 6: 890 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 7: 925 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 8: 943 km SE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 9: 966 km SE of Iriga City
Distance 10: 995 km SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 480 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri June 15
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
GUCHOL is expected to decrease on its westerly track w/in the next 6 to 12 hours and will turn sharply to the WNW to NW between 24 to 48 hours. It will then move almost northerly by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will just move across the Philippine Sea, passing more or less 300 km to the east of the Philippines through Monday - without hitting any land areas.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Category 2 Typhoon (TY) this morning.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles. GUCHOL is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns northwestward while still over the Philippine Sea...wind intensity at Category 2 [2AM JUN 16: 11.5N 129.6E @ 175kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Heading north-northwestward while to the east of Bicol Region...attains Category 3 status...about 339 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM JUN 17: 15.0N 127.0E @ 195kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its Category 3 strength...starts to move poleward (north) sparing Extreme Northern Luzon...about 396 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUN 18: 19.4N 125.6E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED/SMALL EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Palau Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 480 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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