Friday, March 30, 2012

Typhoon PAKHAR [02W] - Update #004


for Friday, 30 March 2012 [12:38 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 30 Mar 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
PAKHAR (02W) continues to rapidly intensify and becomes the 1st Typhoon of the 2012 Season...threat to Southern & Southeastern Vietnam increases.

Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Near Phan Thiet, Vietnam (between 6-7AM Sunday).

Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri March 30 2012
Location of Center: 9.7º N Lat 111.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 347 km SSE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 383 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 3: 427 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 497 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 5: 833 km West of Puerto Princesa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Southeastern Vietnam
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri Mar 30


PAKHAR (02W) is expected to continue moving slowly WNW-ward over the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southeastern Vietnam (near Phan Thiet) on Sunday morning, April 1st (approx 6-7AM HK Time)...and will weaken rapidly into a Tropical Storm as it traverses the land mass of Southern Vietnam late Sunday. It will be approaching the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border on Monday morning (April 2).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Continued strenghening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days. .

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING:  Continues to intensify at near-Category 2 wind strength...maintains its slow, WNW track closer to Southeastern Vietnam [8AM MAR 31: 10.2N 110.0E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY MORNING:  Weakens to 120 kph as it makes landfall over Southeastern Vietnam (near Phan Thiet approx. 6-7 AM HK Time) [8AM APR 01: 11.1N 108.2E @ 120kph].
MONDAY MORNING:  Downgraded to a weak Tropical Storm as it dissipates rapidly over Southern Vietnam...about 110 km NNE of Ho Chi Minh City [2AM APR 02: 11.4N 108.1E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING EYE - over water (South China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Strong Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern Vietnam & some portions of Spratly Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & SE Vietnam beginning Saturday until its projected landfall on Sunday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:


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