Friday, March 30, 2012

TS PAKHAR [02W] - Update #003


for Friday, 30 March 2012 [7:20 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Fri 30 Mar 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm PAKHAR (02W) rapidly gaining strength as it drifts very slowly with 100 km/hr winds.

Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri March 30 2012
Location of Center: 10.0º N Lat 111.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 330 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 2: 350 km SE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 383 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 532 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 5: 789 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 02 kph (01 kt)
Towards: Southern Vietnam
NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 20-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Fri Mar 30


PAKHAR (02W) is expected to move slowly WNW-ward over the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam (to the south of Nha Trang City) on Sunday early morning, April 1st (approx 4-5AM HK Time).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. Further strenghening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days...and PAKHAR could become a Typhoon on Saturday. .

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING:  Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as it moves WNW closer to Southern Vietnam [2AM MAR 31: 10.3N 110.6E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING:  Prepares to make landfall as it bears down the coast of Southern Vietnam [2AM APR 01: 11.0N 108.8E @ 120kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it dissipates rapidly over Southern Vietnam [2AM APR 02: 11.4N 108.1E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (86-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Strong Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern Vietnam & some portions of Spratly Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:


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