Thursday, March 29, 2012

TS PAKHAR [02W] - Update #002


for Thursday, 29 March 2012 [5:41 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 29 Mar 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
PAKHAR (02W) becomes a Tropical Storm as it drifts slowly WNW...threatens Southern Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along the Spratly Islands & Southeastern/Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu March 29 2012
Location of Center: 9.9º N Lat 111.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 304 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 2: 350 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 382 km SE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 4: 567 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 5: 756 km West of Puerto Princesa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Southern Vietnam
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Mar 29


PAKHAR (02W) is expected to move slowly WNW-ward over the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam or just to the south of Nha Trang City on Sunday morning, April 1st.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Further strenghening is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days...and PAKHAR could be near typhoon intensity before landfall (early Sunday morning). .

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center. PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON:  Continues to intensify as it drifts WNW-ward across the South China Sea [2PM MAR 30: 10.4N 111.0E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON:  At near-Typhoon strength as it bears down the coast of Southern Vietnam [2PM MAR 31: 11.0N 109.6E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipating rapidly over land as it traverses Southern Vietnam [2PM APR 01: 11.5N 108.4E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Strong Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across some portions of Spratly Islands...reaching the Southeastern Vietnam tomorrow. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:


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