Bushman's Typhoon Blog: March 2012

Saturday, March 31, 2012

TS PAKHAR [02W] - Update #008

for Saturday, 31 March 2012 [7:19 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).

PAKHAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR [02W/1201]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 31 Mar 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Tropical Storm PAKHAR (02W) continues to move slowly westward in the direction of Southern Vietnam...landfall expected tomorrow evening. Rainbands continues to spread across Southern & Southeastern Vietnam.

Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Between Phan Thiet & Vung Tau (Sunday Evening, approx. 7-8pm HK Time).

Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat March 31 2012
Location of Center: 9.6º N Lat 109.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 292 km South of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 344 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 3: 540 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Southern Vietnam
NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sat Mar 31

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

PAKHAR (02W) is expected to turn WNW-ward over the next 1 to 2 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam on Sunday evening, April 1 (approx. 7-8PM HK Time), passing very close to Ho Chi Minh City early Monday morning (approx. 1-2AM HK Time). This system will traverse the land mass of Southern Vietnam through Monday morning and dissipate along the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border in the afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. PAKHAR is forecast to lose strength during the next 12 to 24 hours due to lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) & land interaction.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles) from the center. PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Bears down the coast of Southern Vietnam...starts to weaken due to land interaction [2PM APR 01: 10.2N 108.0E @ 95kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Loses Tropical Cyclone status...just an area of low pressure moving across the land mass of Cambodia [2PM APR 02: 11.8N 105.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & SE Vietnam beginning Saturday until its projected landfall on Sunday. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 3

Visit Your Group

Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use

__,_._,___

TS PAKHAR [02W] - Update #007

for Saturday, 31 March 2012 [12:57 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).

TROPICAL STORM PAKHAR [02W/1201]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 31 Mar 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

PAKHAR (02W) losing strength...downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Fragmented outer rainbands continues to affect the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam.

Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Near Ho Chi Minh City (Sunday Evening, approx. 7-8pm HK Time).

Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat March 31 2012
Location of Center: 9.6º N Lat 109.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 299 km SSE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 375 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 3: 509 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Southern Vietnam
NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (High)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sat Mar 31

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

PAKHAR (02W) is expected to continue moving slowly West to WNW over the next 1 to 2 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam (passing over or very close to Ho Chi Minh City) on Sunday evening, April 1 (approx 7-8PM HK Time). It will traverse the land mass of Southern Vietnam through Monday morning and dissipate along the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. PAKHAR is forecast to maintain its strength during the next 12 hours & weaken.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center. PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Slowly weakens as it approaches the coast of Southern Vietnam [8AM APR 01: 10.0N 108.1E @ 100kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Loses Tropical Cyclone status...just an area of low pressure while moving across the land mass of Southern Vietnam (crossing the VIetnamese-Cambodian Border) [8AM APR 02: 11.3N 105.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 150 mm (high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & SE Vietnam beginning Saturday until its projected landfall on Sunday. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

NOTE:

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 3

Visit Your Group

Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use

__,_._,___

Typhoon PAKHAR [02W] - Update #006

for Saturday, 31 March 2012 [7:31 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).

PAKHAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON PAKHAR [02W/1201]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 31 Mar 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Typhoon PAKHAR (02W) somewhat not looking healthy as it crawls westward toward Southern Vietnam.

Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Near Ho Chi Minh City (Sunday Afternoon).

Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat March 31 2012
Location of Eye: 9.7º N Lat 110.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km SSE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 392 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 3: 485 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 4: 537 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 942 km West of Puerto Princesa
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Southern Vietnam
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat Mar 31

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

PAKHAR (02W) is expected to continue moving slowly West to WNW over the next 1 to 2 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam (near Ho Chi Minh City) on Sunday afternoon, April 1st (approx 1-3PM HK Time)...and will traverse the land mass of Southern Vietnam Sunday evening. It will be approaching the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border on Monday early morning (April 2).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. PAKHAR is forecast to start losing strength during the next 24 to 36 hours as the system nears land.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Tropical Storm as it approaches the coast of Southern Vietnam [2AM APR 01: 10.0N 108.5E @ 110kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Loses Tropical Cyclone status...just an area of low pressure while moving across the land mass of Southern Vietnam (near the VIetnamese-Cambodian Border) [2AM APR 02: 11.4N 106.3E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING EYE - over water (South China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Strong Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam & some portion of Spratly Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & SE Vietnam beginning Saturday until its projected landfall on Sunday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 3

Visit Your Group

Switch to: Text-Only, Daily Digest • Unsubscribe • Terms of Use

__,_._,___

Friday, March 30, 2012

Typhoon PAKHAR [02W] - Update #005

for Friday, 30 March 2012 [7:32 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).

PAKHAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON PAKHAR [02W/1201]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 30 Mar 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)

Typhoon PAKHAR (02W) has maintained its slow westward drift towards Southern Vietnam...Outer rainbands spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam.

Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Near Phan Thiet, Vietnam (between 2-3AM HKT Sunday).

Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri March 30 2012
Location of Eye: 9.7º N Lat 110.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 334 km SSE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 403 km WSW of Pagasa Is., Spratlys
Distance 3: 450 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 475 km ESE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 5: 855 km West of Puerto Princesa City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Southern Vietnam
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Fri Mar 30

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

PAKHAR (02W) is expected to continue moving slowly WNW-ward over the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam (near Phan Thiet) by early Sunday morning, April 1st (approx 2-3AM HK Time)...and will weaken rapidly into a Tropical Storm as it traverses the land mass of Southern Vietnam late Sunday. It will be crossing the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border on Monday afternoon (April 2).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Further strenghening is forecast during the next 1 to 2 days before it makes landfall over Southern Vietnam. .

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers (15 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying to near-Category 2 wind strength...bears down the coast of Southern Vietnam [2PM MAR 31: 10.3N 109.2E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly weakens into a Tropical Storm after making landfall over Southern Vietnam...moving over land [2PM APR 01: 11.3N 107.2E @ 85kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it crosses the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border. [2PM APR 02: 12.1N 106.3E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING EYE - over water (South China Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (South China Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Strong Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam & some portion of Spratly Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & SE Vietnam beginning Saturday until its projected landfall on Sunday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm