Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MORAKOT (KIKO)

for Saturday, 08 August 2009 [6:03 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu August 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TYPHOON MORAKOT (KIKO).

MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 08 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

MORAKOT (KIKO) weakens into a Tropical Storm after making landfall over Eastern Taiwan late last night...now located off Western Taiwan. Heavy rains with high winds will continue across Taiwan.

*Residents and visitors along Taiwan & Southeastern & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to tracking WNW to NW for the next 12 to 24 hours with weakening trend. The 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system cruising across Taiwan Strait later this afternoon and shall make its second or final landfall along Southeastern China on Sunday morning, Aug 9...and dissipate along the mountains of Eastern China on Monday Aug 10.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's weakening circulation continues to traverse Western Taiwan. The storm's inner (rain) bands spreading across much of Taiwan Strait and the coast of SE China...with its outer (feeder) bands over inland SE China and Extreme Northern Luzon and the Yaeyama Island Chain. Very heavy rains w/ extreme winds of more than 100 kph can be expected along the eyewall...while violent winds of 60-85 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands. On the outer bands, moderate to strong winds of 30-60 kph w/ occasional rains, squalls can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of MORAKOT and along mountain slopes on where the core is expected to pass. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Taiwan and Southeastern China today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 65 kph with some few passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, PARTS OF LUZON, WESTERN VISAYAS, AND MINDORO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Strong Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) remains over the NW Pacific Ocean...currently located near lat 21.5N lon 141.2E...or about 640 km East of P.A.R. or 1,995 km ENE of Basco, Batanes...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving Northward while embedded within the eastern part of the active and broad Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).

This system is likely to become a Significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 06 to 24 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat August 08 2009
Location of Center: 24.2º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km (45 nm) WNW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 2: 120 km (65 nm) SW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 260 km (140 nm) SW of Fuzhou, China
Distance 4: 275 km (150 nm) West of Xiamen, China
Distance 5: 430 km (232 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 meters]
Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Taiwan Strt-SE China Area
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sat Aug 08
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Fri Aug 07
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Sat Aug 08
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: NORTHERN CAGAYAN, APAYAO, ILOCOS NORTE & BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 1 to 3 feet.

JTWC 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST:

2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 24.9N 121.2E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NW @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 25.7N 119.8E / 100-130 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 AUGUST: 27.7N 118.4E / 30-45 KPH (Tropical Disturbance / LPA) / .. @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 08 AUGUST POSITION: 24.1N 121.2E.
^ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR
INDICATE THAT TS 09W MADE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN AT APPROXIMATELY
071500Z AND HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON LAND INTERACTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON FIXES CONTINUING TO
SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 09W
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE REMAINDER OF TAIWAN,
AND WILL BRIEFLY INTENSIFY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24 AS IT REORGANIZES
IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 09W
WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL MAINTAIN GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW....(more)

>> MORAKOT, meaning: Emerald. Name contributed by: Thailand.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 24.3N 121.2E / WNW @ 19 kph / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MORAKOT (KIKO/09W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm