Monday, August 03, 2009

TD 08W (JOLINA) - Update #007

 


for Monday, 03 August 2009 [1:59 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon August 03 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Tropical Depression 08W (JOLINA).


08W (JOLINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W [JOLINA]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Mon 03 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 08W (JOLINA) drifting slowly northward over the Northern South China Sea.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 08W (JOLINA).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 08W is expected to continue moving northward to NNE today and track towards Guangdong Province reaching minimal Tropical Storm strength later. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 08W moving very slowly poleward or NNE, approaching the coast of Guangdong Province either Thursday and Friday (Aug 6-7)...dissipating along the coast on Saturday morning (Aug 8).

    + Effects: 93W's disorganized circulation remains over the South China Sea, with its low-level center partially exposed. Rainfall accumulations of up to 200-300 mm can be expected within its circulation. This system is not affecting any major land areas at this time.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Light to moderate southwesterly winds not in excess of 40 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO, METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN & WESTERN LUZON, AND PARTS OF BICOL REGION. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Mon August 03 2009
    Location of Center: 18.9º N Lat 116.2º E Lon
    Distance 1: 470 km (255 nm) WNW of Laoag City
    Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) SE of Hong Kong
    Distance 3: 505 km (273 nm) SSW of Shantou, China
    Distance 4: 600 km (325 nm) East of Hainan Island
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    General Direction: Southern China
    Size (in Diameter): 550 km (295 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Mon Aug 03
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Mon Aug 03
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 12 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

    JTWC 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 03 AUGUST: 19.3N 115.8E / 65-85 KPH / N @ 07 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 20.0N 115.8E / 65-85 KPH / N @ 07 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 21.2N 116.0E / 55-75 KPH / NNE @ 04 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 21.9N 116.2E / 55-75 KPH / NNE @ 04 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 03 AUGUST POSITION: 18.5N 116.1E.

    ^TD 08W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING
    INFLUENCES. THERE IS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA
    THAT HAS HELPED TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
    PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A BUILDING ANTICYCLONE
    SOUTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES, ANCHORED AROUND 10N 145E, WHICH IS
    RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST AND WANTS TO TRIGGER A NORTHEASTWARD TURN
    ...
    (
    more)

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

  • _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 08W (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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