Bushman's Typhoon Blog: August 2009

Monday, August 10, 2009

TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Final Update

for Monday, 10 August 2009 [6:21 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu August 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TS MORAKOT (KIKO).

MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 017 [FINAL]
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 10 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC FINAL WARNING #025
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

MORAKOT (KIKO) dissipating over Fujian Province...barely a Tropical Storm.

*This is the Final E-mail Advisory on this system.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to continue moving overland across Zhejiang, China this afternoon and dissipate.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's dissipating circulation continues to affect SE an Eastern China and Taiwan. Moderate to strong winds w/ occasional rains, squalls can be expected along its circulation. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm near the center of MORAKOT and along mountain slopes closest to the center. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Moderate to slightly strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with some few passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon August 10 2009
Location of Center: 27.9º N Lat 119.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 120 km (65 nm) West of Wenzhou, China
Distance 2: 300 km (162 nm) SW of Ningbo, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 meters]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Zhejiang Province, China
Size (in Diameter): 1,150 km (620 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon Aug 10
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Sun Aug 09
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon Aug 10
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 10 AUGUST: 28.6N 118.7E / 45-65 KPH (Tropical Depression) / N @ 20 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 11 AUGUST: 30.7N 119.0E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance / LPA) / . @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 AUGUST POSITION: 27.3N 119.2E.
^TS 09W HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR THE PAST 06
HOURS, AND HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF RAPID WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH
LAND. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 35 KNOTS BUT WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TS 09W CONTINUES
TO TRACK OVER CHINA TO THE NORTHWEST, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWARD TRACK
AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION...(more)

>> MORAKOT, meaning: Emerald. Name contributed by: Thailand.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MORAKOT (KIKO/09W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Sunday, August 09, 2009

TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Update #016

for Sunday, 09 August 2009 [6:36 AM PST]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu August 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TS MORAKOT (KIKO).

MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 016
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 09 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #021
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MORAKOT (KIKO) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it remains over Taiwan Strait while drifting very slowly NNW...Landfall over Coastal Fujian expected this afternoon.

*Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to continue moving slowly NNW and shall make its last landfall off Fujian Province in China this afternoon. MORAKOT shall dissipate Monday as it accelerates further inland over mainland China.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's weakening circulation continues to affect SE China and Taiwan. The storm's inner (rain) bands continues to affect Western and Northern Taiwan...Taiwan Strait...and the coastal areas of Fujian Province, China. Its outer (feeder) bands spreads across other parts of SE China, including the small islands of Yaeyama Group and Batanes Group (Philippines). Widespread rains w/ violent winds of not more than 100 kph can be expected near its center...while violent winds of 60-80 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands. On the outer bands, moderate to strong winds of 30-60 kph w/ occasional rains, squalls can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm near the center of MORAKOT and along mountain slopes closest to the center. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Taiwan and Southeastern China today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 60 kph with some few passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN, CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun August 09 2009
Location of Center: 25.4º N Lat 120.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (68 nm) ESE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 2: 140 km (75 nm) WNW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 290 km (157 nm) SSW of Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 570 km (308 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 meters]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
General Direction: Fujian Province, China
Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sun Aug 09
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Sat Aug 08
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Aug 09
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph this morning. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 1 to 3 feet.

JTWC 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 26.0N 119.4E / 55-75 KPH (Tropical Depression) / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 10 AUGUST: 27.1N 119.0E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance / LPA) / N @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 10 AUGUST: 28.5N 118.8E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance / LPA) / .. @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 AUGUST POSITION: 25.1N 119.9E.
^ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH
THE DEEPEST PORTION OF CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF TS 09W. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS THE LLCC STRUCTURE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED, WITH AN ELONGATION IN THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
AXIS, MAKING IDENTIFICATION DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT FORECAST
INDICATES THAT TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO MAINLAND CHINA,
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND AT TAU 12, WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY
TAU 24...(more)

>> MORAKOT, meaning: Emerald. Name contributed by: Thailand.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 24.9N 120.1E / WNW Slowly / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Update #015

for Saturday, 08 August 2009 [5:50 PM PST]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu August 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TYPHOON MORAKOT (KIKO).

MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 08 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #019
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MORAKOT (KIKO) drifting slowly NNW along the NW Coast of Taiwan or over Taiwan Strait...continues to lose strength due to the terrain interaction in Taiwan.

*Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to re-intensify slightly later tonight as it traverses the Taiwan Strait. Due to its sudden slow movement, the projected landfall over Fujian Province is expected tomorrow afternoon. MORAKOT shall dissipate Monday as it moves further inland over China.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's weakening circulation continues to affect SE China and Taiwan. The storm's inner (rain) bands spreading across much of Taiwan Strait, Taiwan, Yaeyama Islands and Fujian Province, China...with its outer (feeder) bands over rest of SE China and Extreme Northern Luzon and the Ryukyu-Okinawa Islands. Widespread rains w/ violent winds of not more than 100 kph can be expected near its center...while violent winds of 60-80 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands. On the outer bands, moderate to strong winds of 30-60 kph w/ occasional rains, squalls can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of MORAKOT and along mountain slopes on where the core is expected to pass. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Taiwan and Southeastern China today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 65 kph with some few passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat August 08 2009
Location of Center: 24.8º N Lat 120.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) WSW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 195 km (105 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 meters]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
General Direction: Fujian Province, China
Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.62 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Aug 08
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Sat Aug 08
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Sat Aug 08
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 1 to 3 feet.

JTWC 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 25.5N 120.3E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNW @ 09 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 26.4N 119.8E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 AUGUST: 27.6N 119.0E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance / LPA) / .. @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST POSITION: 24.8N 120.7E.
^RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A DRAMATIC DROP IN THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION FOR 09W AS IT MOVES OFF TAIWAN AND BACK OVER
WATER. THE CENTER HAS LOST A LOT OF STRUCTURE PASSING OVER LAND, BUT
WINDS REMAIN HIGH AS EVIDENT IN A 080203Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS
UNFLAGGED 40 TO 45KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS STILL EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM,
ALONG WITH STRONG EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR,
AS THE CENTER IS ILL DEFINED, AND POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM
RJTD AND PGTW. TRACK IS BASED ON A GOOD OBJECTIVE AIDS PACKAGE.
AGREEMENT IS STRONG THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT THE MODELS EXHIBIT A FAIR
DEGREE OF SPREAD AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA
WITH DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL WILL TRACK. THE
FIRST SOLUTION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND, AND THE SECOND SOLUTION IS FOR THE LOW TO
RECURVE AND BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST SOLUTION....(more)

>> MORAKOT, meaning: Emerald. Name contributed by: Thailand.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 24.9N 120.5E / NW @ 9 kph / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) | Start a new topic

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Bushman's Typhoon Blog

Monday, August 10, 2009

TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Final Update

Sunday, August 09, 2009

TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Update #016

TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Update #015

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