Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon FENGSHEN (FRANK) turns North..heads for NCR [Update #006]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006

Name: TYPHOON FENGSHEN [FRANK/07W/0806]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SAT 21 JUNE 2008
Source: T2K FORECAST ANALYSIS
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON FENGSHEN (FRANK) HAS SHIFTED ITS COURSE ABRUPTLY & IS NOW

HEADING ON A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...ENDANGERS SOUTHERN

TAGALOG PROVINCES INCLUDING METRO MANILA...ITS EYE AND EYEWALL EXPECTED

TO PASS OVER METRO MANILA TOMORROW.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: FENGSHEN is expected to pass very close Marinduque late

tonight before making landfall near the City of Lucena around 3 AM. It

shall then move across Laguna, Batangas - cutting across Laguna de Bay

around 7 to 8 AM. The Eye and its Eyewall is expected to pass over Metro

Manila around 8 to 10 AM tomorrow before moving across Bulacan-Nueva Ecija

area tomorrow afternoon. Throughout Sunday evening, the typhoon shall move

across Central Luzon and shall be over Benguet around 2 AM Monday, June 23.
The sudden Northerly turn of Fengshen was due to the long-awaited weakening
of the high pressure steering ridge located over Taiwan which was supposed

to weaken yesterday..and the development of a peripheral steering ridge

southeast of Fengshen or just to the east of Mindanao.

+ EFFECTS: The Eye of FENGSHEN continues to move along the Sibuyan Sea

with its EyeWall affecting the Island of Romblon. Marinduque shall expect

the arrival of the EyeWall later tonight. Meanwhile, Its inner bands con-

tinues to spread across Mindoro, Panay Island and the Coastal Areas of

Southern Tagalog. Strong winds of up to 85 km/hr with moderate to heavy

rains can be expected along the inner bands. Meanwhile, whole Bicol Region,

Metro Manila, Central & Southern Luzon, the whole of Visayas, and Northern

Palawan remains under the effects of FENGSHEN's outer (rain) bands. Moderate

to heavy rains with winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected tonight.

Residents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding

& landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system.

Precautionary measures must be implemented today. Coastal Storm Surge

flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and

dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of FRANK's

projected path particularly on where the center makes landfall in Lucena &

Batangas tomorrow morning. Moderate damage is possible on this type of storm

surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along coastal areas of Western &

Southern Luzon and Northern Visayas with surf reaching 2-4 feet at most.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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EYEWALL PASSAGE FORECAST TIMES (EPFT):

+ Marinduque: 7PM tonight until 5AM tomorrow.
+ Lucena-Batangas-Laguna: 4AM until 12PM tomorrow.
+ Metro Manila: 8AM until 5PM tomorrow.

Note: The EyeWall - is the ring of rain clouds surrounding the "EYE" of a Typhoon. It is here where the
strongest winds and heaviest rain of a typhoon can be found. EPFT will show what local times on a given
area the most damaging winds and heaviest rainfall could be experienced. EPFT changes everytime a
new warning synopsis is issued. Important: This is only an estimate analysis, do not use this for life
or death decisions.
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 21 JUNE
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 12.6º N...LONGITUDE 122.1º E {Sat Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 10 KM (05 NM) WEST OF ROMBLON, PH

DISTANCE 2: 80 KM (42 NM) SSE OF BOAC, MARINDUQUE, PH

DISTANCE 3: 155 KM (83 NM) SW OF NAGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 165 KM (90 NM) SSE OF LUCENA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 5: 240 KM (130 NM) SSE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 175 KM/HR (95 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 215 KM/HR (115 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 952 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: MARINDUQUE-BATANGAS AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 555 KM (300 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME SAT JUNE 21
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#03 - BATANGAS, BORACAY, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, MINDORO, LUBANG
IS., CALAMIAN GROUP, NORTHERN ANTIQUE, AKLAN & CAPIZ.

#02 - METRO MANILA, BATAAN, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL, QUEZON,

POLILLO IS., CAMARINES PROVINCES, ALBAY, MASBATE, BURIAS

IS., NORTHERN PALAWAN, REST OF ANTIQUE, ILOILO & GUIMARAS.

#01 - ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, SOUTHERN
AURORA, SORSOGON, REST OF PALAWAN, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL, NEGROS

ORIENTAL, CEBU, BOHOL, SIQUIJOR IS., & LEYTE.

12, 24, 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE: 13.8N 121.5E / 150-185 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 22 JUNE: 14.9N 121.1E / 130-160 KPH / NNW @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE: 16.2N 120.7E / 120-150 KPH / NNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE POSITION: 12.2N 122.3E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TY 07W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY WHILE
TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TYPHOON HAS
MAINTAINED ITS STRUCTURE AND DISPLAYS AN EYE FEATURE DESPITE
SUSTAINED LAND INTERACTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.
...(more).

>> FENGSHEN {pronounced: feng~shen}, meaning: God of Wind.
Name contributed by: China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 21 JUNE: 12.3N 122.3E / NW @ 11 KPH / 160 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite and Information Service (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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