Tuesday, June 17, 2008

T2K Philippine Tropical Outlook [for week June 17-30, 2008]

 

Typhoon2000 Philippine Tropical Outlook
Issued: 8:00 AM MANILA TIME (00:00 GMT) TUE 17 JUNE 2008
Next Update: 8:00 AM (00:00 GMT) TUE 24 JUNE

_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
Week One (1) Forecast: JUNE 17-23, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday] 
 
[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across Luzon, Visayas &
Mindanao.
Wet conditions are expected in this area as a result of the Madden-
Julian Oscillation's (MJO) weak Wet-Phase, onset of the Southwest (SW) Monsoon,
ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures. Confidence: MODERATE.

[2] Favorable conditions exist for the formation of Tropical Disturbance 94W
(LPA) into a Tropical Cyclone east of the Philippines (Philippine Sea).
Active
convection & increasingly more prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward of
this region are expected to gradually lead to more favorable conditions for
Tropical Cyclone development.
Confidence: STRONG.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week Two (2) Forecast: JUNE 24-30, 2008 [Tuesday to Monday]
 

[1] Continued chance of above-average rainfall across the Philippines. Wet
conditions are expected in this area as a result of the onset of the Southwest (SW)
Monsoon, ITCZ and areas of above sea surface temperatures. Confidence: LOW.

[2] Continued favorable conditions exist for Tropical Cyclogenesis for the
South China Sea, East of the Philippines (Philippine Sea) & Western Pacific
Ocean.
Prevailing convection and prevalent low-level westerly flow equatorward
of this region are expected to lead to continued favorable conditions for Tropical
Cyclone development.
Confidence: LOW. 



Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above two-week tropical forecast outlook, does not
guarantee 100% accuracy! Errors & changes particularly the 2nd week forecast can happen 
within
the designated outlook week.



> This outlook is issued for planners every Saturday
.

> The next outlook will 
be issued on Tuesday, June 24, 2008.

Sources: NOAA Global Benefits/Hazards Assessment & Various Numerical Computer Models.
_____________________________________________________________________________
>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
_____________________________________________________________________________

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_____________________________________________________________________________

Always visit these web addresses for the latest info on Philippine Tropical
Cyclones:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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