Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon WUTIP (PAOLO) Update #006

for Sunday, 29 September 2013 [8:44 {M PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON WUTIP (PAOLO) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 29 September 2013

Typhoon WUTIP (PAOLO) continues to intensify as it tracks westward across the Western Part of the South China Sea...likely to make landfall over Central Vietnam on Monday afternoon or evening.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 95W [QUEDAN] continues to consolidate as it remains almost stationary along the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Its center was located about 1,060 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Samar (11.1N Lat 135.1E Lon)...with maximum winds of 40 km/hr near the center. Various forecast models suggest this system could become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 06 to 24 hours with a northerly track across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean...and is not a threat to the Philippines. This disturbance has a high chance (>50%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours.

Residents and visitors along the coastal areas of Central Vietnam and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Wutip (Paolo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Wutip (Paolo) was located over the western part of the South China Sea...about 245 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island or 325 km east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving westward with a forward speed of 13 km/hr towards Central Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 160 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. Wutip (Paolo) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of WUTIP (Paolo) is estimated to be extreme (350 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Wutip (Paolo) is expected to move west to west-northwest during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Wutip (Paolo) will make landfall over Central Vietnam in between the cities of Vinh and Hue on Monday afternoon...and will traverse the rugged terrain of Laos and Northern Thailand on Tuesday.

TY Wutip (Paolo) will start to lose strength during the next 24 hours...and will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) on Tuesday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 35 km/hr on Tuesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 1 as it makes landfall over Central Vietnam...about 140 km northwest of Hue, Vietnam [5PM SEP 30: 17.3N 106.6E @ 150kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Just a remnant low pressure while moving across Laos and Northern Thailand...about 160 km west of Vientiane, Laos [5PM OCT 01: 18.0N 101.1E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over the western part of the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Over the western part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western portions of the South China Sea Sea and the southern coast of Hainan.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Hainan Island and the coastal areas of Central Vietnam (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Wutip (Paolo).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Hainan and Central Vietnam tonight and early Monday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Hainan Island and Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 29, 2013
Class/Name: TY Wutip (Paolo)
Location of Eye: Near 16.7º N Lat 111.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 325 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 325 km NE of Hai An, Vietnam
Distance 4: 385 km ENE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 625 km ESE of Vinh, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: W @ 13 kph
Towards: Central Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY WUTIP (PAOLO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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