Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TORAJI (15W) Update #003

for Tuesday, 03 September 2013 [8:28 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM TORAJI (15W) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Tuesday 03 September 2013

Tropical Storm TORAJI (15W) continues to drift northeast...moving closer to Western Kyushu. Deteriorating weather condition is expected across the island beginning tonight.

Residents and visitors along Western Japan and Northern Ryukyus should closely monitor the development of Toraji (15W).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Toraji (15W) was located over the East China Sea...about 205 km north-northwest of Amami Island or 285 km southwest of Kagoshima, Japan...currently moving northeast with a decreased forward speed of 13 km/hr towards Kyushu, Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center. Toraji (15W) remains a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 325 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Toraji is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Toraji (15W) is expected to continue moving generally northeastward maintaining its speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Toraji (15W) will be making landfall over the southwestern shores of Kyushu Island tomorrow afternoon.

TS Toraji (15W) will slightly intensify through the next 12 hours reaching its peak intensity of 95 km/hr...before weakening by 24 and 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds decreasing to just 45 km/hr on Thursday, as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over the southwestern shores of Kyushu...about 15 km SSW of Kagoshima, Japan [5PM SEP 04: 31.5N 130.4E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical...as it moves into the southwestern shores of Honshu, Japan...weakens further...about 75 km southwest of Hiroshima, Japan [5PM SEP 05: 33.8N 132.0E @ 45kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moves toward the Sea of Japan...about 155 km northwest of Kyoto, Japan [5PM SEP 06: 36.3N 134.6E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern part of the East China Sea and Southwestern Kyushu.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern Ryukyus and Rest of Kyushu Island (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Toraji (15W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Sep 03, 2013
Class/Name: TS Toraji (15W)
Location of Center: Near 29.9º N Lat 128.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 205 km NNW of Amami Island
Distance 2: 385 km NNE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 285 km SW of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 415 km SE of Jeju Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: NE @ 13 kph
Towards: Kyushu, Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 325 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TORAJI (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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