for Saturday, 21 September 2013 [7:31 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Saturday 21 September 2013
Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) has just passed the Batanes Group of Islands but its inner rainbands continue to affect the area. Its very wide wind circulation and its outer rainbands are still affecting Northern Luzon and Taiwan, and are now starting to affect Southeastern China.
This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across Western Visayas and the Rest of Luzon including MiMaRoPa, Metro Manila, Bicol Region and CaLaBaRZon today until Sunday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Southern Taiwan and Southern China should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11:00 am today, the eye of TY Usagi (Odette) was located over the Bashi Channel...about 85 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes or 160 km north-northwest of Calayan Island, Cagayan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr towards Southern China.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 220 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY Usagi (Odette) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a westward bend through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday late afternoon and will move across the South China Sea on its way to Southern China. By Monday early morning, Usagi (Odette) will be making landfall over Guangdong Province after passing along the Hong Kong Harbour-Macau Area.
TY Usagi (Odette) will continue to weaken during the next 24 to 48 hours...and could be downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) by Monday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 130 km/hr on Monday morning.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
SUNDAY MORNING: Approaching Hong Kong and Guangdong Province (Southern China)...weakens slightly...about 295 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China [11AM SEP 22: 21.8N 117.0E @ 215kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Over Guangdong Province after passing over Hong Kong Harbour-Macau area...weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 140 km west-northwest of Macau, China [11AM SEP 23: 22.5N 112.3E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakening further along the China-Vietnam Border...downgraded to a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)...about 50 km northwest of Mong Cai, Vietnam [11AM SEP 24: 21.9N 107.7E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
28-KM RAGGED EYE - Over the western part of Bashi Channel. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Western part of Bashi Channel (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Batanes Group, Calayan & Babuyan Islands including the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southeastern China. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Taiwan, Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Bicol Region and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat Sep 21, 2013
Class/Name: TY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 20.7º N Lat 121.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 85 km WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 65 km WSW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 160 km NNW of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 265 km NNW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 230 km SE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph
Towards: Southern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,000 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 48 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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