Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) Update #016

for Saturday, 21 September 2013 [8:40 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Saturday 21 September 2013

Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) continues to move across the Bashi Channel exiting the Philippine Area of Resposibility (PAR) towards the South China Sea...outer rainbands are still affecting the Batanes Group, Calayan and Babuyan Islands, northern provinces of Northern Luzon, Taiwan and Southeastern China.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across Western Visayas, western sections of Northern and Central Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Metro Manila and CaLaBaRZon tonight until Sunday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Southern Taiwan and Southern China should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Usagi (Odette) was located over the Bashi Channel...about 210 km northwest of Basco, Batanes or 170 km south-southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr towards Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 220 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) has reduced into a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Usagi (Odette) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will be approaching Southern China by tomorrow afternoon. Usagi (Odette) will be over Guangdong Province on Monday afternoon after passing along the Hong Kong Harbour-Macau Area early Monday morning.

TY Usagi (Odette) will continue to weaken during the next 24 to 48 hours...and could be downgraded to a Tropical Storm by Monday afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 100 km/hr on Monday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Hong Kong and Guangdong Province (Southern China)...weakens slightly...about 170 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China [5PM SEP 22: 22.0N 115.8E @ 195kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over Guangdong Province after passing over Hong Kong Harbour-Macau area...weakens to a Tropical Storm...about 220 km west-northwest of Macau, China [5PM SEP 23: 22.9N 111.5E @ 100kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakening further along the China-Vietnam Border...downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) and dissipating overland...about 135 km north-northeast of Mong Cai, Vietnam [5PM SEP 24: 22.7N 108.2E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

PINHOLE CLOUD-FILED EYE - Over the western border of Bashi Channel. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Western part of Bashi Channel (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western part of Bashi channel.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Batanes Group, Calayan and Babuyan Islands, northern provinces of Northern Luzon, Southern Taiwan and Southeastern China. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Taiwan, Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Bicol Region and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 21, 2013
Class/Name: TY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 21.1º N Lat 120.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km NW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 180 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 250 km NW of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 365 km NW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 170 km SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph
Towards: Southern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 50 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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