Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Powerful Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) Update #009

for Thursday, 19 September 2013 [8:23 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 009
Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 19 September 2013

USAGI (ODETTE) has resumed its rapid intensification during the past 6 hours and is now a 220-km/hr Typhoon...threat to Northern Luzon and Taiwan remains.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas tonight...and will start to affect Western & Central Luzon including Metro Manila and CaLaBaRZon beginning Friday thru Sunday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Usagi (Odette) was located over the north central part of the Philippine Sea...about 550 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 560 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...currently moving northwest with a decreased forward speed of 11 km/hr towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased at 220 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) has grown into a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,000 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Usagi (Odette) is expected to move northwest during the next 24 hours...and will turn more to the west-northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will remain over the open waters of the Philippine Sea as it moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon on Friday...and will be over the Batanes Islands on Saturday early morning.

TY Usagi (Odette) will continue to intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a Category 5 Super Typhoon (STY) later tonight or early Friday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds increasing to 260 km/hr by Friday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 5 STY as it moves northwest across the North Philippine Sea...about 270 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [5PM SEP 20: 19.9N 124.4E @ 260kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOOON: Weakens into a Category 4 status while moving west-northwest across the Batanes Islands...about 205 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [5PM SEP 21: 21.7N 120.1E @ 220kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it turns westward across the South China Sea approaching Hong Kong Area...weakens to a Category 3 TY...about 135 km east-northeast of Hongkong, China [5PM SEP 22: 22.4N 115.5E @ 185kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

37-KM ROUND EYE - Over the North Central part of the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Batanes and Babuyan Islands and the coastal areas of Cagayan including Calayan Island, Isabela, and Northern Bicol (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Luzon and Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands beginning Friday through Saturday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Bicol Region and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Sep 19, 2013
Class/Name: TY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 18.0º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 550 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 560 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 615 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 650 km ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 640 km SE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Saturday Morning [4AM-7AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1000 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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