Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MAN-YI (16W) Update #004

for Saturday, 14 September 2013 [7:16 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (16W) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 6:45 PM PhT (10:45 GMT) Saturday 14 September 2013

Tropical Storm MAN-YI (16W) continues gaining strength as it turns northwestward while over the sea south of Japan. Its outermost rainbands are now spreading across the southern coast of Japan.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Man-yi (16W).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Man-yi (16W) was located over the Western Pacific Ocean...about 810 km east-southeast of Okinawa, Japan or 1,150 km south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan...currently moving northwest with an increased forward speed of 26 km/hr towards Southern Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers from the center. Man-yi (16W) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,020 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Man-yi is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Man-yi (16W) is expected to move northerly during the next 12 hours...with a recurvature to the north-northeast by 24 hours. By 48 hours, the system will rapidly accelerate northeasterward. On the forecast track, the core of Man-Yi will be approaching the southern shores of Honshu on Sunday afternoon...and will make landfall over Aichi and Shizouka Prefectures in Honshu, Japan on Monday morning.

TS Man-yi will continue to strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours...and could be near-Typhoon intensity by early Monday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds reaching 110 km/hr prior in making landfall to Southern Honshu.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the southern shores of Honshu as it recurves toward the northeast...about 310 km south of Tanabe, Japan [5PM SEP 15: 30.9N 135.2E @ 100kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the eastern shores of Honshu...becoming an Extratropical Cyclone...about 165 km east of Sendai, Japan [5PM SEP 16: 38.1N 142.8E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone as it accelerates very fast across the Western Pacific Ocean...about 340 km east of Kuril Islands [5PM SEP 17: 45.8N 154.5E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (Over Western Pacific Ocean).
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The Southern Coastal Areas of Japan, Iwo To, Bonin and Chichijima Islands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the north, northwest and near the center of Man-yi (16W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Sep 14, 2013
Class/Name: TS Man-yi (16W)
Location of Center: Near 25.9º N Lat 135.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 555 km WNW of Iwo To, Japan
Distance 2: 620 km W of Chichijima
Distance 3: 810 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 870 km S of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 5: 1150 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,020 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MAN-YI (16W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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