Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) Update #018

for Sunday, 22 September 2013 [11:20 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 018
Issued at: 7:45 PM PhT (11:45 GMT) Sunday 22 September 2013

Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) has rapidly accelerated and weakened while over the South China Sea...now making landfall over Guangdong Province, Southern China...near the city of Lufeng. Typhoon force-winds with heavy torrential rains will be expected along Guangdong Province including Hong Kong and Macau tonight. This system will start to dissipate as Usagi moves across the rugged terrain of Southern China.

USAGI (ODETTE) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across Western Visayas, western sections of Northern and Central Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Metro Manila, Bicol Region and CaLaBaRZon today until Monday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm PABUK (19W) has moved NNW while over the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean. Its center was located about 260 km SSE of Iwo To or 2,090 km ENE of Basco, Batanes (22.6N Lat 142.1E Lon)...with maximum winds of 95 km/hr near the center...currently moving NNW at 11 kph. This storm is very far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Hong Kong and Macau should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of TY Usagi (Odette) was located over the shores of Guangdong Province, Southern China...about 115 km southwest of Shantou, China or 185 km east-northeast of Hong Kong, China...currently moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 33 km/hr towards Guangdong Province (Southern China).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be heavy (310 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Usagi (Odette) is expected to continue moving west-northwest to westward during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will be moving over land across the provinces of Guangdong and Guangxi thru Monday...passing some 90 km to the north of Hong Kong late tonight or early Monday morning, just after midnight.

TY Usagi (Odette) will continue to weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will be downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon tonight...and as a Tropical Storm on Monday afternoon. It will be dissipate as an area of low pressure by early Tuesday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 85 km/hr on Monday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating over land...just a Tropical Storm moving across the ruggged terrain of Western Guangdong...about 280 km north-northeast of Zhanjiang, China [5PM SEP 23: 23.7N 111.4E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over the shores of Guangdong Province, near the cities of Lufeng and Shanwei. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Over Guangdong Province, near the cities of Lufeng and Shanwei (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern Guangdong (from Hong Kong to Shantou City).
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Southern China, Taiwan Strait, Western Taiwan, and the northern part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 310 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern China tonight. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 22, 2013
Class/Name: TY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 22.8º N Lat 115.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km SW of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 185 km ENE of Hong Kong, China
Distance 3: 245 km ENE of Macao, China
Distance 4: 450 km W of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 33 kph
Towards: Guangdong-Guangxi Provinces
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [310 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 42 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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