Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) Update #014

for Saturday, 21 September 2013 [7:31 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Saturday 21 September 2013

Super Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) is now passing over the Batanes Group of Islands...bringing typhoon-force winds with heavy to extreme rainfall across the area. Its very wide wind circulation and its rainbands continues to affect Northern Luzon and Taiwan.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across Western Visayas and the Rest of Luzon including MiMaRoPa, Metro Manila, Bicol Region and CaLaBaRZon today until Sunday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Southern Taiwan and Southern China should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the eye of STY Usagi (Odette) was located over the Bashi Channel...about 10 km east of Basco, Batanes or 145 km north-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 24 km/hr towards Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 240 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY Usagi (Odette) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a westward bend through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday evening and will move across the South China Sea on its way to Southern China. By Monday morning, Usagi (Odette) will be making landfall over Guangdong Province after passing along the Hong Kong Harbour-Macau Area.

STY Usagi (Odette) will continue to weaken during the next 24 to 48 hours...and could be downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) by Monday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds decreasing to 150 km/hr on Monday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Approaching Hong Kong and Guangdong Province (Southern China)...weakens slightly...about 355 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China [5AM SEP 22: 21.7N 117.6E @ 215kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Making landfall over Guangdong Province after passing over Hong Kong Harbour-Macau area...weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 62 km west of Macau, China [5AM SEP 23: 22.2N 113.0E @ 150kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Dissipating along the China-Vietnam Border...downgraded to a minimal Tropical Storm (TS)...about 45 km east-northeast of Mong Cai, Vietnam [5AM SEP 24: 21.6N 108.3E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

28-KM RAGGED EYE - Over the Batanes Group of Islands. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Batanes Group of Islands (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Calayan & Babuyan Islands including the northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Northern Luzon and Taiwan (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Taiwan, Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands today. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Bicol Region and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Sep 21, 2013
Class/Name: STY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 20.5º N Lat 122.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 10 km E of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 45 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 145 km NNE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 220 km N of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 300 km SE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 24 kph
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Now [until 7AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 48 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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