for Saturday, 21 September 2013 [1:32 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Saturday 21 September 2013
Super Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) weakens to Category 4 status as it prepares to cross the Bashi Channel. Its eye and eyewall expected to pass over the Batanes Group of Islands within the next few hours bringing very strong winds, heavy rains and large sea waves.
This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon and Visayas, MiMaRoPa, Metro Manila, and CaLaBaRZon today until Sunday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Southern Taiwan and Southern China should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11:00 pm today, Friday Sep 20, the eye of STY Usagi (Odette) was located over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel...about 115 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 200 km northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 22 km/hr towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 240 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
STY Usagi (Odette) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a westward bend through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday evening and will move across the South China Sea on its way to Southern China. By Sunday evening, Usagi (Odette) will be passing along the Hong Kong Harbour-Macau Area.
STY Usagi (Odette) will continue to weaken during the next 24 to 48 hours...and could be downgraded to a Category 3 Typhoon (TY) by Saturday evening. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds decreasing to 160 km/hr on Sunday evening.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Moves out of the Phil. Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakens to a Category 3 TY...about 490 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China [11PM SEP 21: 21.6N 118.9E @ 205kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Category 2 TY as it moves across the Hong Kong Harbour and Macau...about 15 km west-southwest of Hongkong, China [11PM SEP 22: 22.2N 114.1E @ 160kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Over the southern part of Guangxi, China...downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 160 km east-northeast of Mong Cai, Vietnam [11PM SEP 23: 22.0N 109.5E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
28-KM ROUND EYE - Over the eastern part of the Bashi Channel...and approaching Batanes Group of Islands. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Batanes Group of Islands (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Calayan Babuyan Islands including the northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Northern Luzon and Southern Taiwan (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Taiwan, Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands tonight through Saturday. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Bicol Region and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 20, 2013
Class/Name: STY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 20.3º N Lat 123.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 145 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 200 km NE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 220 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 385 km SE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Saturday Morning [1AM-4AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 48 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4.0-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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