Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MAN-YI (16W) Update #006

for Sunday, 15 September 2013 [10:47 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (16W) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued at: 10:15 PM PhT (14:15 GMT) Sunday 15 September 2013

Tropical Storm MAN-YI (16W) at near-Typhoon intensity as it approaches the shorelines of Shikoku and Honshu, Japan. Deteriorating weather conditions across Southern Japan.

This storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and breezy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across Western and Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, Bataan, MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Man-yi (16W).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 8:00 pm today, the center of TS Man-yi (16W) was located over the sea south of Shikoku-Honshu, Japan...about 245 km southeast of Kochi, Japan or 615 km southwest of Tokyo, Japan...currently moving north-northeast with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr towards Southern Honshu, Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers from the center. Man-yi (16W) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Man-yi is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Man-yi (16W) is expected to move northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Man-Yi will be approaching the southern shores of Shikoku and Honshu later this evening...and will make landfall over Aichi and Shizuoka Prefectures in Honshu, Japan on Monday morning. The system will be along the northeastern coast of Honshu on Monday evening.

TS Man-yi will start to weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will become Extratropical. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds decreasing to just 95 km/hr after crossing Honshu.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EVENING: Just along the northeastern coast of Honshu...becomes an Extratropical Cyclone...about 145 km east-northeast of Sendai, Japan [8PM SEP 16: 38.7N 142.5E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-140 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: None (over water).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-99 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Southern Coast of Shikoku and Honshu.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Shikoku and the Central and Southern part of Honshu, Japan (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas to the north and near the center of Man-yi (16W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Sun Sep 15, 2013
Class/Name: TS Man-yi (16W)
Location of Center: Near 31.7º N Lat 135.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 225 km S of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 245 km SE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 280 km S of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 4: 425 km SSW of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 5: 615 km SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: NNE @ 28 kph
Towards: Southern Honshu
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MAN-YI (16W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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