Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS WUTIP (PAOLO) Update #003

for Saturday, 28 September 2013 [8:31 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM WUTIP (PAOLO) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Saturday 28 September 2013

Tropical Storm WUTIP (PAOLO) has tracked southwest while over the South China Sea and rapidly intensified...could become a Typhoon earlier than expected as it threatens Central Vietnam.

Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 95W has become disorganized while over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea. Its center was located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 430 km NW of Yap Island or 1,100 km ENE of Borongan City, Samar (12.4N Lat 135.5E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center...currently moving NNE at 28 kph. Various forecast models suggest this system could become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours with a north to north-northeast track across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean...and will no longer threaten the Philippines. This disturbance has a low chance (<30%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours.

Residents and visitors along the coastal areas of Central Vietnam and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of Wutip (Paolo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Wutip (Paolo) was located over the South China Sea...about 510 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island or 620 km east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving southwest with a decreased forward speed of 13 km/hr towards Central Vietnam.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers from the center. Wutip (Paolo) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation to the north and near the center of WUTIP (Paolo) is estimated to be extreme (300 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Wutip (Paolo) is expected to move west-southwest to westerly during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the west-northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Wutip (Paolo) will be over the western part of the South China Sea on Sunday morning...and will be just along the coast of Central Vietnam near Da Nang City on Monday morning.

TS Wutip (Paolo) will continue to gain strength during the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a Typhoon (TY) later today or Sunday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds increasing to 130 km/hr on Monday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Intensifies into a Category 1 TY as it moves across the western part of the South China Sea...about 395 km east of Hoi An, Vietnam [5AM SEP 29: 15.9N 112.0E @ 120kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Intensifies further as it approaches the coast of Central Vietnam...about 90 km east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [5AM SEP 30: 16.4N 109.0E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to a TS after making landfall over Central Vietnam...moving westward across Laos...about 260 km west-northwest of Hue, Vietnam [5AM OCT 01: 16.9N 105.2E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (101-120 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Central Part of the South China Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central and western portions of the South China Sea Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Eastern Hainan (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the north and near the center of Wutip (Paolo).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Sep 28, 2013
Class/Name: TS Wutip (Paolo)
Location of Center: Near 16.6º N Lat 114.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 510 km SE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 615 km ENE of Hoi An, Vietnam
Distance 3: 620 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 4: 680 km E of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 705 km NW of Subic, Zambales
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: SW @ 13 kph
Towards: Central Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure:996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 500 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS WUTIP (PAOLO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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