Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TORAJI (15W) Update #002

for Tuesday, 03 September 2013 [7:17 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM TORAJI (15W) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 03 September 2013

Tropical Storm TORAJI (15W) intensifying as it moves northeast toward Western Kyushu...now passing just to the north of Okinawa.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus and Western Japan should closely monitor the development of Toraji (15W).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Toraji (15W) was located over the East China Sea...about 235 km north of Okinawa, Japan or 445 km southwest of Kagoshima, Japan...currently moving northeast with a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr towards Kyushu, Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center. Toraji (15W) has reduced into a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 325 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Kong-Rey (Nando) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Toraji (15W) is expected to continue moving northeastward with a decreased forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Toraji (15W) will be passing over the seas north of the Ryukyu Islands today...and will be just along the southwestern shores of Kyushu (Japan).

TS Toraji (15W) will still intensify through the next 12 hours...before weakening between 24 to 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds decreasing to just 75 km/hr on Thursday, as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Continues to move slowly northeastward across the easternmost part of the East China Sea...about 215 km SSW of Kagoshima, Japan [5AM SEP 04: 30.1N 129.1E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical...as it moves along the western shores of Kyushu, Japan...starts to weaken...about 50 km southwest of Kagoshima, Japan [5AM SEP 05: 31.3N 130.1E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Accelerates more to the northeast while traversing the central part of Kyushu...about 85 km southeast of Fukuoka, Japan [5AM SEP 06: 33.1N 131.1E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern part of the East China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Toraji (15W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Sep 03, 2013
Class/Name: TS Toraji (15W)
Location of Center: Near 28.6º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km WNW of Amami Island
Distance 2: 235 km N of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 445 km SW of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 530 km SSE of Jeju Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: NE @ 15 kph
Towards: Kyushu, Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 325 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TORAJI (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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